(CNN) A trio of new intrusions leaves America’s leaders grasping for explanations

(CNN) A trio of new intrusions leaves America’s leaders grasping for explanations. Quoting,

A deepening national security mystery is threatening a political storm after US fighter jets scrambled three days in a row to shoot down a trio of unidentified aerial objects high over the North American continent.

To all, patience. The answer will come.  This is science.  When it comes, it will be technical, not political.

The only political aspect is, how much do you want to spend?

 

(CNN) Analyst thinks this is why more unidentified objects are being spotted

(CNN) Analyst thinks this is why more unidentified objects are being spotted.

CNN national security analyst Juliette Kayyem wants to know the constitution of the “bigger aperture.” I’ll explain the part that any electro-physicist or radar engineer knows.

Decluttering algorithms are essential to radar function. These algorithms are characterized by scales of time, known as time constants. Normally kept fixed, these numbers are now being varied — “swept.” For a balloon, you want a larger number than for an airplane, because in most circumstances, balloons move slower.

The “aperture” has another part. Out  of respect for secrecy, I will not discuss what I think it is.

 

 

(CNN) US military shoots down high-altitude object over Lake Huron on Sunday.

(CNN) US military shoots down high-altitude object over Lake Huron on Sunday. Quoting,

The object was shaped like an octagon with strings hanging off it and did not appear to be carrying anything.

The octagonal shape renews interest in a balloon structure that may contain integral antennas:

  • An octagon imposes a weight penalty over a spheroid, so there must be a good reason.
  • Kapton, a favored plastic for planar antennas,  is inelastic and only moderately flexible.
  • Design of a highly specified antenna on a curved, dimensionally unstable substrate is hopeless.

A suspended capsule containing active electronics may have been deliberately dropped.

(CNN) US jet shoots down ‘unidentified object’ over northern Canada…; Threat to North Warning System

(CNN) US jet shoots down ‘unidentified object’ over northern Canada, Trudeau says.

After Deadhorse Alaska, this is the second balloon discovered within the polar vortex, in the vicinity of the North Warning System.

The AN/FPS-117 radar component of the  North Warning System uses pulse compression to defeat jamming. To jam this radar requires detailed knowledge of its emissions. To avoid the distortion of atmospheric dispersion, the radar pulse must be sampled close to the source.

Reliable insertion into the polar vortex requires launch from Russian territory, a courtesy that may have been provided to China.

Note to CNN — balloons cannot reach 60 miles; (CNN) Exclusive: US developed method to track China’s spy balloon fleet within last year, sources say. 

(CNN) Exclusive: US developed method to track China’s spy balloon fleet within last year, sources say.  Quoting,

But the new method is important because the balloons are extremely difficult to track without it – they are slow-moving and can fly extremely high, in some cases as high as much as 60 miles up,

This error appears to be propagation of a typo in a government report.

For theoretical and practical reasons, the limit is close to 170,000 feet, 32 miles.

The world record is held by NASA “Big 60”.

Deadhorse Alaska UFO; (CNN) Biden ordered US military to ‘down’ a ‘high-altitude object’ over Alaska, White House says

(CNN) Biden ordered US military to ‘down’ a ‘high-altitude object’ over Alaska, White House says

The ambiguous shape description suggests it may be a balloon made of multiple non-spherical gas cells, like an inflatable mattress.

This would allow the attachment of inconspicuous conformal antennas. See patch antenna.

So it may be a miniature, low capability spy balloon.

Seymour Hersch’s Bogus Nordstream Claim

(Aljazeera) US has questions to answer over Nord Stream blasts, Russia says. Quoting,

Comments by Russia’s foreign ministry come after a piece by American investigative reporter Seymour Hersh alleging the US military was behind the Nord Steam attacks.

Hersch is wrong. He swallowed hook, line, and sinker.

See Who Sabotaged Nordstream Pipelines? and (Wapo) No conclusive evidence Russia is behind Nord Stream attack.

Hint: amber.

How much did the Chinese Balloon weigh? Napkin Calc

Last week, major news outlets reported that the inner core of Earth was about to stop turning. Now a prominent columnist has declared that the Chinese balloon weighed as much as three buses, which is about 105,000 lbs. This is baloney. So I did a calculation.

We need the diameter of the balloon. Based on a photo, and the length of the truss, stated by U.S. authorities as three coach bus lengths (12 meters/bus X 3), the diameter is estimated as 50 meters.. We use:

  • Density of helium at STP.
  • Height of 20,000 meters.
  • An altitude air density table for standard day,
  • Adjustment of buoyancy  for altitude with Boyle’s Law.
  •  F=m*g for the force to be balanced.

This determines a total weight in the vicinity of 11,000 pounds. The payload may be a third of that.

 

China Spy Balloon

(CNN) What is a suspected Chinese spy balloon doing above the US?

Refer to CNN Exclusive: FBI investigation determined Chinese-made Huawei equipment could disrupt US nuclear arsenal communications. A possible explanation:

  • Inside the skin of the balloon, there is an electronically steerable antenna array.
  • A goal is to intercept and precisely determine locations of 44 gHz uplinks (from ground station to satellite) of the Milstar system.
  • This knowledge could be used to disable one of the redundant command paths for the nuclear deterrent.
  • The uplink beams are very narrow, not practical targets for typical satellites.

The National Reconnaissance Office has space-based ability to do this; the sigint satellites cost $1BN apiece. This is currently beyond the capabilities of China.

 

 

Could AI Stop Police Brutality? Are the Memphis Scorpion Five Psychopaths? Part 1

From Police Brutality, Derek Chauvin, George Floyd, Rousseau’s Social Contract Part 2,

CNN) National security adviser: ‘I don’t think there’s systemic racism’ in US police forces. Quoting Robert O’Brien,

“No, I don’t think there’s systemic racism. I think 99.9% of our law enforcement officers are great Americans. Many of them are African American, Hispanic, Asian, they’re working the toughest neighborhood, they’ve got the hardest jobs to do in this country and I think they’re amazing, great Americans.”

This is easily contradicted:

      • If 5-10% of  males (Australian estimate), or 1-5% (other estimates) are workplace psychopaths, then 99.9% of cops can’t be great Americans. No sampling of any profession or group of Americans shows 99.9% of people you just want to love. There are lots of rotten people, everywhere you look….

The participants in the fatal attacks on George Floyd and Tyre Nichols did not initiate  simultaneously. In each case, one individual initiated. In the case of Floyd, the rest remained passively complicit. Statistics imply, without proof, that Derek Chauvin and at least some of the “Memphis Scorpion Five” are workplace psychopaths.

In (CNN) Opinion: The police who killed Tyre Nichols were Black. But they might still have been driven by racism, Van Jones suggests that racism may have a part. Though self-loathing occurs in minorities, it can be only a part of what causes a police officer to slip the bonds of civil behavior. The huge occupational hazard, per Friedrich Nietzsche:

“Beware that, when fighting monsters, you yourself do not become a monster… for when you gaze long into the abyss. The abyss gazes also into you.”

The Stanford prison study conducted by Philip  Zimbardo offers a horrific alternative to the notion that brutality is the domain of the psychopath: In conditions fairly easy to obtain, ordinary people can be induced to behave like workplace psychopaths. Quoting Zimbardo about the Lucifer Effect,

“I had been conducting research for some years on deindividuation, vandalism and dehumanization that illustrated the ease with which ordinary people could be led to engage in anti-social acts by putting them in situations where they felt anonymous, or they could perceive of others in ways that made them less than human, as enemies or objects,”

and

“Good people can be induced, seduced, and initiated into behaving in evil ways. They can also be led to act in irrational, stupid, self-destructive, antisocial, and mindless ways when they are immersed in ‘total situations’ that impact human nature in ways that challenge our sense of the stability and consistency of individual personality, of character, and of morality.”(Zimbardo, The Lucifer Effect, p. 211)

Police Brutality, Derek Chauvin, George Floyd, Rousseau’s Social Contract Part 2 proposes an approach with three forks:

  • Mitigating the direct cause, preventing cops who shouldn’t be cops from becoming cops.
  • Fulfillment of the social contract.  In our culture, this means that crime is punished, even if the perp is a cop.  This won’t prevent a repetition, but the social contract demands it.
  • Only then will the people consent to be governed.

The Memphis Scorpion Five, which forced a look at the Stanford prison study, suggest this is inadequate.

What else is there? Hint: It’s in the title.

***The Stanford Prison Experiment***

 

 

 

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