(CNN) Donald Trump guilty on all 34 felony charges.

See Manhattan DA Trump Felony Charge Will Go to Jury.

The devil is in the details, of translating a  noun, “supremacy” of the Supremacy Clause, to a verb, “preempt”, with the adverbs “broadly” or “narrowly.”

Trump’s appeal will be broadly based on the  Supremacy Clause. By use of the Supremacy Clause, the Federal Election Commission claims broad preemption of state election laws. This includes, as a debatable point of law, denial of the right of a state to enforce federal election statutes.

While the Federal Election Commission claims broad preemption, the actual case law favors the prosecution.

The case law favors the prosecution; appeals courts have allowed incidental use of federal election statutes, where the federal statutes are not actually subject to prosecution in a state court.

I’ve misplaced the case law; it’s out there.

Putting aside human messiness, consider a situation where each juror is like an independent coin flip. Since this is a criminal case, unanimity is required.

If the chance each juror votes for conviction is 99%,  the chance of conviction  is 0.99¹² • 100%=  89%.

If the chance each juror votes for conviction is 95%,  the chance of conviction  is 54%.

If the chance each juror votes for conviction is 90%,  the chance of conviction  is 28%.

If the chance each juror votes for conviction is 85%,  the chance of conviction  is 14%.

This is why the court of public opinion is a mediocre predictor of jury verdicts.

(CNN) ‘Soviet-style purge’: Expert on Putin arresting military brass.

The suggestion is that this is not really motivated by a drive against corruption. If it were, it would be a terrible miscalculation by Putin. He has miscalculated, but not on grounds he knows so well.

The salary of a Russian mid-rank general is around $35K / year, for which his complicity is required in,  since January, an average of 964 daily casualties – delivering young Russian men to death or disability. He could make more slaughtering chickens in the West. So what keeps him going?

Without the corrupt inducements of the Russian military, nothing. Those beneath him on the promotion ladder see their future inducements vanish.

This logic  implies that Putin’s purge must be accompanied by a not-quite-visible element of possibly revised corruption. The present system must continue, perhaps with explicit authorizations from above, in return for the one element that has been a constant of his reign – loyalty.

Watch the colonels, denied the Mercedes of their dreams. (CNN) ‘I’m smiling’: Ret. Lt. Gen. Hertling reacts to Putin news; Putin takes Command.

The pot simmers. Premature, perhaps, but not to be discounted: Power Transition in Russia? Revolution? Part 3 — Has Revolution begun?

***Double, Double Toil and Trouble***

(CNN) US assesses Russia likely launched a counter space weapon last week.

For a description of a conventional, non-nuclear weapon, see Mysterious Russian satellite; It’s a Tristatic Locator.

The Russian weapon inevitably enjoys a cost exchange advantage over the largest category of U.S. spy satellites; cost translates directly to capabilities. Optics for the largest birds require multiple years to manufacture. Several possible mitigations exist:

• Stealth, which is already in use.

• Transition to  platforms with unpredictable mobility (large Delta-v budget), such as the Boeing X-37 space plane.

• Low cost satellites, with severely reduced capability.

This discussion is non-nuclear.

(CNN) China’s newest aircraft carrier heads to sea for first time.

Quoting,

 As for the US Navy’s size advantage over the Fujian, the Ford displaces 100,000 tons and the 10 Nimitz-class ships 87,000 metric tons.

This is incorrect. Ford and Nimitz are within 3000 tons of each other.  The writer may have conflated different load conditions, metric and English ton units, or both.

Quoting,

With a displacement of 80,000 metric tons, the Fujian dwarfs the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) two active carriers, the 66,000-ton Shandong and the 60,000-ton Liaoning.

“Dwarf” is not appropriate. “Incremental” is.

Really interesting questions, such as

• electrical power generation
• performance of the electromagnetic catapult system
• modern armor and survivability
• availability of insensitive munitions, key to survivability
• quality of the structural steel
• weapons system integration
• durability of the propulsion plant

are not addressed. This is sloppy, lazy journalism.