A senior administration official had told CNN on Monday that the 100 million infection number is a moderate one that falls somewhere in the middle of more conservative and extreme projections and is based on an underlying assumption of no additional resources or extra mitigation measures being taken, including new Covid-19 funding from Congress, or dramatic new variants.
This is in line with my own prediction of 1/31/2022, Omicron BA.2; 2022 COVID Forecast; Napkin Calculation #8. Quoting,
- Prediction via extrapolation: A peak 9-10 months past 1/22.
What of severity? The speculation of Omicron, a Good Thing? is wrong. Omicron infection provides some cross immunity, at terrible cost. Whether faded immunity from Omicron, 9 months hence, reduces severity is an open question, which only a variant can answer. Mortality will probably decline, due to increased human immune system experience, but remain at uncomfortable levels.