The sentiment comes from a small group working in a cutting-edge field known as unrest prediction. The group takes a promising if fraught approach that applies the complex methods of machine-learning to the mysterious roots of political violence…
On December 21, 2020, I anticipated a coup: Coup in the United States? In May of 1964, this almost happened…
I have worked in AI, but I didn’t use it here. I used:
- The unique capacity of some human minds to know the minds of others, and simulate them, in a process known as empathy.
- Reflection on prior actions and pronouncements.
- See (1/17/2021) Coup Still Possible from Inside Government for ideation analysis.
Unrest prediction has value primarily for societies we know less well than our own, where it competes with domestic intelligence, leaks, and close observation of key personalities.