It  would make a good movie. But in this post, we make an academic, dispassionate assessment of the hazards.

***Watch This***

The reasons for the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei connect with Shia Twelver culture in two ways.

The first is illustrated by the tearful breakdown of an Iranian news anchor:  (CNN) State TV presenter cries while announcing the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei’s first name, Ali, honors Husayn ibn Ali, the third Imam, or spiritual leader, of Shia Islam.

The tears were at least culturally lubricated by the commemorations of Ashura. Quoting Wikipedia,

By contrast, for Shia Muslims, Ashura is a day of mourning as they annually commemorate the death of Husayn ibn Ali, grandson of the Islamic prophet Muhammad and the third Shia imam.

…

The main component of ritual ceremonies (majalis, sg. majlis) is the narration of the stories of Karbala (rawza-khwani, qiraya),^[46][29][26] and the recitation of elegies and dirges (nawha, niyaha, marsia-khwani),^[47][48] all intended to raise the sympathy of audience and move them to tears.^[49]

This is on the mild side, with informal competitions among pious Iranians at who can cry the most and make their audiences cry the most. The object is to make it seem as if it happened yesterday. Others, particularly at Karbala, engage in mostly banned self flagellation and mutilation. This is why the TV anchor cried. It Indicates a level of cultural habituation that must be considered in predictions of Iranian actions.

The state religion of Iran is Twelver Shia Islam. This religion maintains that, at all times, God has a personal representative on earth.  There have been twelve so far. The first eleven were all assassinated, their fates replicated by Ali Khameini. Shi’ism incorporates elements seen in other mystic religions, blurring the lines of physical reality. The twelfth Imam, evading the fate of his predecessors, manifests in a mystic outcome. Quoting Muhammad al-Mahdi,

Hasan al-Askari, the eleventh Imam, died in AH 260 (873–874), possibly poisoned by the Abbasids. Immediately after his death, his main representative, Uthman ibn Sa’id al-Asadi, claimed that the eleventh Imam had an infant son named Muhammad, who was kept hidden from the public out of fear of Abbasid persecution. Uthman also claimed to represent Muhammad, who had entered a state of occultation.

“Occultation” means that that the twelfth Imam is here, but invisible. In a tone similar to Christian beliefs, the pious believe Muhammad will reappear at an unspecified future date. The vitality of this belief is demonstrated by the fall of former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who challenged the clergy by asserting that he was in communication with the occulted Imam. This myth is actively available for popular manipulation of the image of what pious Iranians see as the next best thing  to the twelfth Imam, namely, the Supreme Leader. See Iran’s ecosystem, Part 1.

The analogies are obvious. Mojtaba Khamenei is the son of an “Ali”; all of the twelve Imams except the last have “Ali” as part of their names. Ali Khameini is a descendant of the aforementioned Imam, Husayn ibn Ali, which gives Mojtaba the blood. He isn’t too bright, but that doesn’t matter, since he is in a coma. He can’t talk, see, or hear,  which is highly compatible with occultation. Through the concept of occultation, pious Iranians are culturally habituated to a leader who is chronically invisible. And Mojtaba is bomb-proof.

This is the perfect solution for the IRG, who appear to be running the show. Mojtaba is the perfect puppet. In the near future, the miracle of AI may endow him with a new head, body, and voice. In the meantime, this tried-and-true method will work:

***Edgar Bergen and Charlie McCarthy***

As this is written, the oil storage facilities of Oman’s Salalah Port Oil Facility are ablaze. It might seem a strange moment to commend the value of Salalah as a Hormuz alternative, but we take the long view.

The military infrastructure and industrial base of Iran can be ground down to millimeters. Their weapons stockpiles can be diminished to near zero. Yet in the absence of profound political change, the tiny residuum is enough to obstruct Hormuz.

The reason is sheer geography. Mountains bordering the water, or separated by a narrow coastal plain, offer copious cover for small units with modern weapons. While formerly, massive emplacements were required, modern missile replacements are much smaller, and highly portable, even multi-man-portable, or by mules. The cover is so effective, Iran can mine the strait in the  near proximity of maximal U.S. naval forces. It is not feasible to deploy naval assets close to or in the strait because the exchange costs are extremely unfavorable.

In the coming months, with Ukrainian help for drone defense, the direct threat to the Gulf states will diminish to almost zero. The strait will remain blocked. Who capitulates first will depend on not only their immediate condition, but also the prospects of improvement. While Iran has no prospects save U.S./ Gulf capitulation, we have more options.

The solution, which by urgency is no longer long term, is massive expansion of overland pipelines, and construction of entirely new ones. Parts of the project can begin almost immediately. Ground preparation and laying of pipeline do not offer concentrated, high value targets. Pumping stations have Intermediate risk. The final steps of terminal construction and loading facilities are delayed until Iranian capabilities become minimal.

The effect of new pipelines on Iranian evolution cannot be overstated. With time on our side, and Iranian lack of means to pay their minions, their system will decay. Time will finish what precision munitions cannot touch.

How long would it take? When Germany constructed a massive LNG terminal/complex in months, one wag said the pace seemed Chinese.

Think Manhattan Project; think Chinese. Just get it done.

Edit. This may now be hypothetical. (Sun) KILLER IN A COMA Iran’s impotent new Ayatollah is in a COMA and has lost at least one leg – as his rogue regime plunges world into chaos 

Mojtaba Khamenei is the new Supreme Leader of Iran. Imagine that you have been tasked with a short essay on where he is most likely to be found. Artificially, your study cannot reference the vast targeting resources of the intelligence community. Consider:

• Legitimacy of his selection.

• Popular legitimacy.

• Credentials.

• Power base.

• Who he needs to connect with now.

• How he might seek to establish his legitimacy among those who question.

A logical answer is feasible, which may vary  based upon your individual logic.

Geography should receive mention.

Develop a contradictory, alternative argument, and choose between.

State a confidence level.

Two things, technology and diplomacy rub up against each other in this mighty foray to crack the axis of evil. Here we join them together. Kissinger said diplomacy must be backed by force, which is here rigorously satisfied. U.S. technology is being showcased on the world stage. Nevertheless, there is an element of gamble. As Clausewitz remarked, the enemy doesn’t do what you want him to do; he does what he wants to do.

Remarks appear in the press about the ineffective efforts in 1991 to eliminate Saddam Hussein’s mobile SCUD launchers. The current optimism is due to advances in sensor technology. In 1991, digital imaging was present in reconnaissance satellites, but it was primitive. Multiple exposures by low resolution sensors were stitched together by mechanical slewing of the imaging platform. A typical cellphone demonstrates far greater performance; a modern reconnaissance satellite is that much better than a cellphone.

Deployment of satellites to detect missile launches began in 1963 with the Missile Defense Alarm System, but the electromechanical MIDAS sensor could not form an image; it simply pointed in the direction of maximum brightness. This was followed by the Defense Support Program, but most of these satellites used “push-broom” sensors, While modern sensors have the shapes of rectangles, the push-broom sensor was in the shape of a line, with only one dimension. By rotating or pushing the line, a few images per minute could be acquired.

Many readers have heard of FLIR, but few know the origin.  It’s an obsolete acronym for a rectangular sensor, like the one in a cellphone,  that doesn’t need to be physically pushed around to form an image. All modern sensors are “FLIR”; these are used in the current Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS) satellite constellation. SBIRS was developed partly in response to 1991 Iraq, when SCUD launchers successfully hid in the almost featureless western desert.

For the first time, the high availability and precise real time image forming ability of SBIRS permits use of satellites to counter tactical threats, such as finding launchers. complimented by the Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk, the F35’s AN/AAQ-37 Distributed Aperture System (DAS) IR sensors, the U-2, and similar platforms.

But space-based assets are only part of the launcher kill-chain, followed by ground-based processing.  Computational photography renders details invisible to the human eye-brain system, merging into AI classification, with details useful to the running tally.  With only minutes before a launcher vanishes, the next step is to compute the response. What assets, with what strike packages, are available to satisfy the cost functional? Drone, loitering munition, “bomb truck”, F-35?

This is a global optimization problem, related to  the “traveling salesman problem”.  In 1985, Hopfield and Tank solved it “near-optimally” with a neural network, reviving AI from its first winter. The answer comes in a few seconds, because the AI knows the status of every available weapon.

Launchers are being eliminated more rapidly than anticipated. There is no precedent for this; hence the results may be unprecedented, coming a little bit closer to boots on the ground. But the bases are a distinct issue; an undefined percentage of Iran’s rocket bases may be under granite rock, beyond the reach of even the MOP. Even with the mixed sedimentary-metamorphic stratigraphy of Fordow, multiple MOPs were applied in multiple hits to “drill down” existing ventilation shafts. Access to these bases is via adits, a.k.a. horizontal tunnels. Tens of yards of these can be collapsed, but the damage is repairable, compared to Fordow, which undermined the mountain itself. And the terrain outside an adit can be altered to impede guidance of a munition to the most vulnerable point of impact.

Hence a purely kinetic solution to Iran’s missile bases may not be possible.  A trade may be envisioned. Destruction of Iran’s industrial base is feasible. At some point, the surviving power structure may be amenable to sacrificing the bases in exchange for remaining infrastructure. This assumes some minimal commonality of values. Sometimes there is, sometimes not. North Vietnam is most pertinent. This ingenious culture valued infrastructure, yet was completely willing to sacrifice it for a political goal. The self-destructive Taliban are even more extreme.

Confounding the comparison is the complete split of Iran between pro-West and theocratic elements. If the theocracy capitulates, they may not survive in a new Iran. The fluidity, and the multiple branches of different futures suggest:

• Multiple U.S. strategies are in play. Rather than define the goal at the outset it is legitimate to allow the goal develop over time.
• Destroy industrial base until or unless an opportunity for a trade for the bases manifests. Thorough destruction of these bases requires either Iran’s accession to boots-on-the ground demolition teams, or radical political change.
• Set the stage for revolution, which involves getting guns to the street. As this is written, there is news that the CIA is working with the Kurds. (CNN) CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say. Another possibility: Sistan and Baluchestan.
• Although the periphery presents opportunities for pressure by destabilization, a core Persian insurgency would greatly favor a good outcome. It is also hardest to achieve.
• Temporary chaos should not be feared. It is an opportunity.

Opinion variously judges Trump’s gamble by international law, human rights advocacy, risk, exit strategy, and domestic politics. None of these frameworks are adequate for the question. Ultimately, it will be judged by results, and later, by history.

The reason for the timing of the strike, which has begun while negotiations were in progress is this: regime decapitation is more achievable  before the leadership has transferred to the most hardened facilities.

There is also a more general advantage in the reduced readiness posture of the adversary, and the disabling of launch sites before they can fire.

See Iran Protests; Is Revolution Nigh?

and What Are the Mullahs of Iran Thinking?

(CNN) A new problem throws four astronauts’ impending moon journey into uncertainty. Quoting,

Because hydrogen is the lightest element in the universe, it tends to leak out of anything intended to contain it. And after hydrogen seepage plagued the first wet dress rehearsal for Artemis II in early February, the space agency worked to replace two seals around the rocket’s propellant lines in an attempt to better confine the fuel.

This requires some context. All  particles in the universe are either fermions or bosons. Fermions have characteristics of ordinary matter familiar to us. One of these is that two particles of matter can’t be in the same place at the same time. On the other hand, bosons, like the photons that comprise light, have no problem.  Cross the beams of two flashlights, and the beams pass through each other  without colliding.

Hydrogen is the lightest element, but helium is the smallest. Hydrogen has a single electron, which has spin 1/2 or -1/2, which makes hydrogen behave as an obvious fermion. Fermions cannot occupy the same space, which results in an effective “size”. The two paired electrons of helium, have opposite spins, cancelling: 1/2 – 1/2 = 0. This makes helium atoms behave like quasi-bosons, which can be closer together than hydrogen can tolerate, until electrostatic repulsion takes over.

So helium is much “smaller” than hydrogen. Famously, it can pass through the glass of old-fashioned vacuum tubes, ruining them.

The inability to solve these leaks probably stems from multiple attempts to substitute for the extremely high costs of techniques used during the Apollo project almost 60 years ago. It is symptomatic of the thinking that also replaced a known-good heat shield technology with something extremely dangerous. See (CNN) NASA is about to send people to the moon — in a spacecraft not everyone thinks is safe to fly; the Stockton Rush Syndrome.

Since the engineers seem to have forgotten the basic Bayesian statistics that govern how many will live and how many will die, perhaps a rare appeal to the politicians is in order. This is going to look extremely bad for you.

They think they can win this fight. The distinctions  of strategic versus tactical victory allow this possibility. Famously, the U.S. won virtually every battle of the Vietnam War, yet lost. The early victories of Japan in World War II were stunning. The limit of the process, the clock, is defined by limits of material resources or political will. The mullahs know they have fewer of the former, but more of the latter.

With the penetrations of the GBU-57A/B MOP, the mullahs now understand the  difference between soft rock, the sedimentary strata of Fordow, and hard igneous rock elsewhere.

The mullahs judge they can handle domestic unrest with as much killing as required.

The mullahs do not fear invasion. One of the most quoted strategic shibboleths is “Air power cannot win a war.”  The accompanying explanation is that it takes boots on the ground to seize territory.  The recent near exception of Venezuela was a decapitation strike. This was facilitated by what, in retrospect, was a remarkable lack of redundancy in the Venezuelan government.

Can a decapitation strike in Iran achieve the goal of regime change? The answer depends on three calculations we may not know how to make:

• Success of the strike, measured against the survival of the target.
• Political implications. See Iran Protests; Is Revolution Nigh?
• Viability of an insurgency.

This last factor has small mention in open source, except for the widely despised Mojahedin-e-Khalq. An insurgency is vital to seize power; otherwise it will simply lapse to surviving elements of the current regime.

As a benchmark, insurgent forces in Iran are far weaker than those fostered in Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation; see  Operation Cyclone. Broad access to sophisticated small arms is essential.

The  elevation  of Xi Jinping to effective dictatorship occurred in 2013, with his simultaneous occupation of three offices: general secretary (2012), president (2013), and chairman of the Central Military Commission (2012). In the following years, the relative opacity of China politics became even more completely opaque.

Beginning in 2025, open sources of uncertain provenance stated that Zhang Youxia had encircled Beijing with troops. It was suggested that Zhang had thus won a power struggle. His arrest by forces loyal to Xi Jinping illustrates the danger of apocryphal interpretations.

Nevertheless, since the troop concentrations, the weight of evidence has shifted further towards what some might call regime change, but is more accurately regime restoration. Like Putin, Xi is physically ill, with a slowly growing cerebral aneurysm, which may have been responsible for a mini-stroke, risking catastrophic rupture, as well as generalized cerebrovascular disease. This has resulted extremes of policy driven by Xi’s character, and sense of personal mortality:

• Unsound plans for military adventurism opposed by China’s military.
• Cult of personality.
• The attempt to replace consensus-based governance of the post-Mao years with concentrated personal power.

Favoring a coup:

• Those in the security forces who might place their bets with Xi are forced to appreciate that Xi may not have much life remaining as a high-functioning individual.
• Troops are arrayed with convenient lines of communication that cannot be disrupted.
• Xi has lost political support.
• Who strikes first, wins.

Conclusion. There is a decent probability that Xi will be deposed in the near term. This will occur with a minimum of disorder, as Xi is thought by many to have lost the mandate of heaven.

The Edicarian  Period was peaceful, with rare exception, as primitive, non-sentient organisms grazed on even more primitive organisms. The  Cambrian Period, 538.8 Mya – 486.85 Mya,  with an explosion of complexity, defined the hunter and the hunted. Jaws,  teeth, eyes, and brains inaugurated the arms race that continues to the present day.

All so we can metaphorically eat each other.

The Cambrian Past; Oil on Panel (click to enlarge))

See New Art Series; Traces of the Past; Painting the Ediacaran Period; Att: Larry Gagosian