Слава Україні! — Slava Ukraïni! — Glory to Ukraine!
As we hold our collective breath, waiting for the counteroffensive in which many will give their lives, this shines through innumerable repetition: Slava Ukraïni! Слава Україні!
Say it out loud. Hope for magical effect.
***Glory to Ukraine!***
***The Longest Day***
(CNN) Kyiv denies involvement in alleged Kremlin drone attack
(CNN) Kyiv denies involvement in alleged Kremlin drone attack.
TERCOM, terrain contour matching cruise missile guidance, became widely known during the 1991 Gulf War. In conjunction with separate terminal guidance, near zero CEP was feasible, while rendering cruise missiles immune to air defense systems. This remains almost true today. In the April 2018 missile strikes against Syria, non-stealth cruise missiles advantaged mountainous terrain to avoid detection by S400 installations, with complete avoidance of interception.
The terrain between Ukraine and Moscow, part of the East European Plain, is not advantageous to this technique. But small plastic drones are much stealthier than all but the newest cruise missiles. This admits two possibilities:
- Ukraine has developed terrain mapping and air defense knowledge of Moscow routes to an extremely detailed degree, flying at near-zero altitude.
- The drones were launched from inside Russia.
A false flag operation is discounted in this case. The Russians responded with surprise and confusion.
If Ukraine is responsible, which is not established, this was the equivalent of the Doolittle Raid. Putin will likely employ his double on May 9, which will not go unnoticed by his inner circle.
Geoffrey Hinton Quits Google; In the Year 2?25
About AI: Geoffrey Hinton Has His Epiphany
(CNN) Tucker Carlson out at Fox News
(CNN) Tucker Carlson out at Fox News.
This is a great day for American democracy, anticipated more than a year ago in (CNN) ‘Something has changed’: Stelter on Trump and Fox relationship.
This outcome may be viewed as a cynical measure to reduce future liability. But morally average people purchase only as much morality as they can easily afford.
“Red Rupert”, who at Cambridge kept a bust of Lenin in his room, may have found his affordable epiphany.
Multiple factors augur a 2024 win for Dems:
- Abortion rights. See Repeal of Roe Versus Wade; the Beginning of a Republican Decline.
- January 6.
- Trump anathema to independents.
- Lack of a Trump alternative.
- Felony prosecutions of Trump et al.
- Fox.
When Cardinal Richelieu died in 1642, a contemporary observed,
“If there is no Hell, he has lived a very good life.”
(CNN) Leaked Pentagon documents provide rare window into depth of US intelligence on allies and foes
(CNN) Leaked Pentagon documents provide rare window into depth of US intelligence on allies and foes.
This blog relies on open source. In this case, it is supplemented by private observations. Since the last administration, I have hypothesized, with low confidence, of a possible mole. The mole would have these characteristics:
- Free agent, unbound to a particular adversary. Supplies both Russia and China.
- Understands distribution lists very well; sources only information that obfuscates the source.
- Amoral, without ideological rancor.
- Motivation entirely financial.
- Completely unafraid of discovery.
- Clients have no obligation to protect this source.
- May have the ability to falsify the record of access.
Manhattan DA Trump Felony Charge Will Go to Jury
Prediction. The Manhattan DA’s Trump felony charge will go to the jury.
The devil is in the details, of translating a noun, “supremacy” of the Supremacy Clause, to a verb, “preempt”, with the adverbs “broadly” or “narrowly.”
While the Federal Election Commission claims broad preemption, the actual case law favors the prosecution.
Killing of Vladlen Tatarsky (Maxim Fomin)
Was this an act of domestic resistance, or Ukrainian? Opinions vary. There isn’t enough evidence to distinguish, while Russian propagandists spin fictions to serve the state.
One constant should be considered in every argument. In 2015, several rebel commanders were likely assassinated by the Kremlin. See Rebel Commander Aleksey Mozgovoy Killed in East Ukraine, Frozen Conflict?
This option is no longer directly available. If the Kremlin desired to use the state security apparatus to neutralize a Tatarsky, Dugin, Girkin, or Prigozhin, they couldn’t do it:
- A substantial minority, the ultra nationalists, would attempt to violently overthrow Putin.
- The security apparatus is riven. An order might be leaked, sabotaged, or never executed.
- A program to defang ultra nationalists must not be attributable to the broader Kremlin.
Implication. If the Kremlin eliminated Tatarsky, proxies were employed. With traditional Russian skills of subversion and infiltration, proxies could even be obtained from anti-war groups. The Russian political cycle up to 1953 has numerous examples of the use of one faction or creche used to destroy another, followed by its own destruction.
The prototype is the killing of Sergey Kirov, discussed in Juan Guaido Watch Your Back; Trump says ‘Russia has to get out’ of Venezuela Part 2.
Coincidentally, Kirov was killed in Saint Petersburg.
Indictment of Donald Trump
Punditry will shortly observe that the indictments make Trump virtually unelectable. Already anathema to independents, he becomes doubly anathema. If Biden adopts a tough immigration policy, he may even peel off a few liberal Republicans.
New York is one of the few remaining states that use grand juries to return indictments. This makes it hard to blame the event on prosecutorial whimsy.
Republican messaging will be difficult:
- Trump is not a disgrace to the party; he’s a credit.
- Thank you for your service. We have to choose an electable candidate.
- DeSantis is the ideal Trump Mini-Me.
Perhaps it’s time to build that Trump Tower Moscow. I hear Ed Snowden is looking for some altitude with attitude.