(Reuters) Two dead in Russian rocket engine explosion; radiation spikes, shipping shut. Quoting,

The brief spike in radiation was reported by authorities in the nearby city of Severodvinsk, which has a population of 185,000. This apparently contradicted the defense ministry, which was quoted earlier by state media as saying radiation was normal.

With one exception, the nuclear ramjet, a rocket engine is not a source of radioactivity.  Things which are not radioactive stay that way, because chemical reactions do not create radioactivity. If something is subject to intense or prolonged irradiation by something that is radioactive, typically with neutrons, then a nuclear reaction occurs, creating new radioactive material.

If the Russians tested a rocket without bothering to remove the nuclear warhead, or left it nearby, that would indicate a level of alcohol consumption that is not possible, even in Russia.  That implies that whatever was radioactive could not be removed from the test article before the test was performed.

This implies that Russia’s nuclear ramjet, to power their nuclear cruise missile, was involved. The ramjet contains a small, air-cooled nuclear reactor that replaces chemical fuel. It heats air admitted by a duct in the front of the engine, causing the air to expand out the back.

The radiation spike indicates that the reactor was disintegrated by an explosion  inside the ramjet, or nearby.

• If the ramjet reactor is not a fail-safe design, or is defective, the rate of atomic fission could spike, causing it to melt. Nearby organic materials, if confined by the missile housing, could result in explosive disassembly. This is not like a “high explosive” detonation, but enough to kill a few bystanders.
• Even a nuke powered ramjet has to be boosted to a pretty high speed before it will start producing thrust. So the cruise missile it is mounted on a conventional, chemical booster stage. If the booster explodes, it can destroy the ramjet reactor.

The ramjet reactor core is not very radioactive before use. Like a commercial power reactor, the radioactivity of the core increases drastically with use. So if the explosion is caused by a fission spike, more radioactivity is released than by a booster explosion.

The fuel for a ramjet reactor is at very high temperature when the ramjet is operating.. It is encapsulated to withstand this stress for the short time it has to work. The town of Severodvinsk reported a brief radiation spike, so the explosion lofted radioactive materials into the air. The briefness of the spike indicates that packaging remained mostly intact, so the fuel was not widely dispersed.

There is real danger here.  The ramjet reactor itself, independent of the warhead, is a source of radioactivity, which increases  with every minute of run time. A nuclear powered cruise missile has the danger of a nuclear weapon, even with no warhead.

Vladimir Putin has expressed pride in this nuclear powered cruise missile. He may not understand that the danger of this weapon: It can slip the leash of the most careful testers. It may fail so that it cannot be controlled from the ground. It may spontaneously change course. Perhaps scarring Russia’s earth is what Stalin would have deemed  an acceptable cost. But even in testing, this ill-conceived weapon could deal nuclear death outside of Russia.

This is one reason why the U.S. cancelled a nuclear cruise missile program, Project Pluto. It was too provocative.

Vladimir Putin, in provisioning your country with a nuclear deterrent, it is vital to eliminate the chance of self-inflicted harm. Nuclear weapons are hellish enough without it.

(NY Times) Aleksei Navalny, Putin Foe, Is Hospitalized After ‘Allergic Reaction’ in Russian Jail.  Quoting,

One of Mr. Navalny’s allies, Leonid Volkov, said on Twitter on Sunday that he had spent 28 days in the same cell in June and had a similar experience to the apparent allergic reaction.

“Immediately upon release, I got all swollen and covered with red spots,” Mr. Volkov wrote. “We thought this was an allergy.”

Though diagnosis requires examination with specialist expertise, it could be the initiation of chloracne, a disfiguring skin disease resembling acne. It is considered a marker of dioxin exposure. Quoting (NCBI) Veterans and Agent Orange: Update 2014, Appendix B Short-Term Adverse Health Responses,

Chloracne is a skin disease that is characteristic of exposure to 2,3,7,8-tetra-chlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and other diaromatic organochlorine chemicals. It shares some pathologic processes (such as the occlusion of the orifice of the sebaceous follicle) with more common forms of acne (such as acne vulgaris)…

Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine politician, was poisoned with dioxin, resulting in disfigurement. The motivation behind such nonlethal poisoning is to avoid creation of a martyr, and to deprive the victim of political charisma by disfigurement.  Navalny is at similar risk.

The loss of Boris Nemtsov, who was gunned down within sight of the Kremlin Walls, was almost regretted by comparison, particularly by Vladimir Putin himself. The sentiment is probably not shared by the significant criminal element within the Kremlin. But on Alexei Navalny, the sentiment is probably unanimous: any chance of political rise must be stopped, without the danger of martyrdom.

For the criminal element, the reason is simple: Navalny is after them. It’s either Navalny or them. Anyone who understands the power of that faction wouldn’t put their money on Navalny. If there were a chance to make it look like an accident, they would take that chance. Apparently, Navalny lives carefully.

Putin’s bargain with the Devil, by which it can be argued that he saved Russia from chaos, involved co-opting all the elements of Russian society, and he has never found a way to pay it off. But there is also a political reason of some legitimacy why Navalny must not be allowed to rise.

It involves the Caucaus. Navalny opposes the allocation of public resources to placate the Caucasus. The slogan of the campaign is “Stop feeding the Caucasus”. For some reason, RT has an article on it that doesn’t sound like half truths: Nationalists demand Moscow ‘stop feeding the Caucasus’. (I do not vouch for total absence of distortion.) Quoting Putin from the article,

“Those who say so deserve to have a piece of themselves cut off,” Putin said during an interview with media outlets from the Chechen Republic. “They do not understand what they are talking about. As soon as any country starts to reject some problematic territories, this means the beginning of the end for the whole country,” he stressed.

Chechnya is an autonomous oblast of the Russian Federation, within the Caucasus, separated from the borders of Russia by somewhat less dangerous regions, though Ingushetia, closer to Moscow, comes close. Two Chechen wars were fought, the second a decisive “win” for Russsia. But the loyalties of Muslim subjects are undermined by radical sympathies that extend through porous borders.

At great cost, Putin crushed Chechnya, and then sealed up the volatile remnants of discontent in a web of personal fealties involving Ramzan Kadyrov and his cohorts. This is not a modern political arrangement. It is purchased loyalty, the price made affordable by the brutality of the Chechen wars. As long as Kadyrov is treated right, it may endure. But if Russia “stops feeding the Caucasus”, conflict beckons, apartment bombings, and a third Chechen war.  Chechnya has a very large, irritable, militia.

No state other than the Russian Federation contains within it another hostile state, temporarily pacified by a welfare program. To stop feeding the Caucasus, it has to be amputated by a guarded border. Perhaps this is the object of Russian nationalists. But that would bring the Middle East to within 400 miles of Moscow.

That’s too close for comfort.

A remark by Xi Jinping is suggestive. (South China Morning Post) Xi Jinping warns Communist Party would be ‘overthrown’ if Taiwan’s independence push left unchecked. Quoting, “The Communist Party would be overthrown by the people if the pro-independence issue was not dealt with.” But the reason is twisted 180 degrees: An independent, democratic Taiwan represents an alternative to the Communist Party.

From Xi’s remark, which applies directly to Hong Kong, a criteria for intervention by China can be derived.  As a geographically contiguous source of political contagion, it is far more dangerous than Taiwan, a more distant source of  communicable disease of thought. But the adjacent troop deployments in Shenzhen do not mean intervention has been decided; it is a precautionary mobilization.

The economic price of intervention would be very high, utterly destroying the economic premium of Hong Kong. No longer a center of commerce, it would become an economic dependency of Shenzhen. That this is appreciated  by the mainland leadership is indicated by the soft approach of their proxy, Carrie Lam:

• All recent arrests were bailed.
• Confidence-building meeting held with the leaders of the business community.

The harsher clashes, between organized crime elements and protesters, were probably paid for by mainland elements.

Blaming the unrest on Western instigation, the CIA, etc., is expected, an indication of the problem Hong Kong presents to the mainland as a relay point to the mainland for Western ideas, which the mainland authorities confuse with active subversion.

The criteria is  indicated: Evolution of the protests towards a “second government.” The participation of normally conservative civil servants is significant. This evolution would be indicated by:

• Defection of an element expected to be loyal.
• Organizing efforts by civil servants, bringing political form to an amorphous movement.
• Emergence of a political movement that attempts to form an alternative government, or simply a parallel power structure.

Absent overt indications such as the above, concessions by Carrie Lam, that instead of diminishing the protests, result  in  escalated demands, contain the implied trigger for intervention.

The cost is drastic, requiring drastic fear.