Hypothesis: The recent vintage of UAPs are Chinese drones, launched from submarines. We reverse engineer in the manner of Russia’s Hypersonic Missile; Reverse Engineering Secrets of Avangard.
Let’s imagine we’ve gone several rounds of sensor development, the data is pouring in; correlations are noted by advanced data fusion / AI. Things are looking good, except for one thing: We haven’t a clue what it means. Let’s proceed from the mundane to the exceptional, and thence to the remarkable/magical. Into which categories would the ultimate explanation fit?
- Pilot disorientation, by adversary manipulation of the expectations of an encounter. It is exceedingly hard for a well trained pilot to accurately judge relative position and velocity when some of the norms of a typical encounter are missing or distorted: size, shape, speed.
- Sensor spoofing, possibly using advanced dielectric materials for optical stealth, and other incremental advances in technology.
- A novel use of mainstream technology, with some novel innovations.
- Quantum leap technology. Within the realm of science, but with a technology gap, hard for an investigation to bridge.
- Technology beyond current knowledge of the physical sciences. Arthur C. Clarke: “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic”.
- Something way outside the box, as in not-of-our-universe.
Per Occam’s Razor, an explanation towards the top of the list is preferred to those further down. Yet there are factors that push down from the top. The authors of Preliminary Assessment are daringly confident that the sensors of the public-release videos were working properly. Multiple pilots observed in daylight while in radio communication, and the sensors saw what they saw. Observations from surface platforms corroborate.
This is basic to the story. With a blog like this, there is no basis to go against story. So we run with it. If the story changes, we can revisit what follows. This is a tiger-team exercise, to develop an explanation close to the top of the list, with minimal discounting of observations.
The discounting takes the form of these assumptions:
- In none of the encounters were the objects observed in all aspects, at all angles. The objects controlled the angle of presentation relative to all observers.
- Reports of extremely high velocity, particularly gain of altitude, or hyper maneuverability relative to an F-18, are consequent to distortion of norms of a typical encounter: size, shape, speed.
This is all that is required to attempt reverse-engineering a Tic Tac. Hypothesis: The recent vintage of UAPs are Chinese drones:
- Propulsion is provided by cold-air turbines spun by massive neodymium rare-earth permanent field motors.
- Special lithium batteries with extremely high discharge rates power the motors. This is compatible with short mission duration. No observations of more than brief mission length have been reported.
- China is a world leader in lithium and rare earth technologies.
- Directional control and lift is provided by thrust-vectoring.
- The simple white shape that provokes comparison to the candy is a stealth shield not present in every aspect. It may have optical stealth optical and/or radar stealth. Have a look at some pics of a horseshoe crab. The dorsal surface is smooth, round, stealthy. The ventral surface exposes the crab for what it is, a messy mass of explicit anatomy.
- The shield may enhance maneuverability.
- In descent, the UAP may reach much higher maximum speed than otherwise. This may bias other observer estimates of flight characteristics.
- Suggested reporting name: Shànzi.
A submarine, the most survivable naval combatant, is severely disadvantaged in situational awareness, compared to vulnerable surface ships. This high altitude platform, deployed and retrieved with high frequency, is of particular advantage to a state with thin global monitoring assets.
Could the drone descend to ocean surface at extreme speed and survive impact with water, an incompressible fluid? With some compromise of observer claims, and some new technology, it may be possible. As impact nears, the turbine enters full power reverse, creating a cushioning bubble of high pressure air contained and maintained by the turbine intake.
Whether or not this explanation approaches correctness, it has an important purpose. It must be thoroughly disposed of before moving against Occam’s Razor, further down the list.
To be continued shortly.