(Al Jazeera) Iran’s President Pezeshkian visits injured, site of deadly port explosion.

The cellphone video shows an initial deflagration (fire or low-order explosion) followed by a detonation (blast)  estimated in the range of 100 tons to multiple thereof. The size of the blast cannot be attributed to an air-dropped weapon in daylight. Denials by Iran that military explosives, or rocket fuel, were present are not credible; a detonation of that size requires large quantities of those substances, or a fuel-air munition for which there is no evidence.

The initial deflagration may have concealed the preceding detonation of a small explosive device. Quoting AP,

Private security firm Ambrey says the port received missile fuel chemical in March. It is part of a shipment of ammonium perchlorate from China by two vessels to Iran, first reported in January by the Financial Times.

Several media have misidentified the chemical as sodium perchlorate, a common industrial chemical that can oxidize combustible substances, but has no explosive properties in isolation. Ammonium perchlorate contains both oxidizer and fuel, supporting both deflagration and detonation. It requires only additives for a practical rocket fuel. Yet  the NY Times references sodium perchlorate:

The security firm Ambrey told The Associated Press that there were indications that the blast resulted from improper storage of sodium perchlorate at the port…

as does CNN:

The New York Times reported Sunday that a person “with ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that what exploded was sodium perchlorate, a major ingredient in solid fuel for missiles. The person spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss security matters.”

Storage of ammonium perchlorate at the  port implies Houthi recipients.

There is no evidence of an air-dropped weapon, which lacks guaranteed deniability.

There is no evidence of cooking-off, when finished munitions are lofted by thermally induced explosion.

Explosion of ammonium perchlorate can be easily induced by a small pyrotechnic device.

There is bias here towards sabotage versus accidental ignition.

If a source did, in fact, identify the chemical as sodium perchlorate, distraction would be the motive.

There is nothing to suggest an industrial accident, which would require the substitution, in name only, of sodium perchlorate, intimately mixed with an unspecified combustible substance. Nevertheless, this will likely be Iran’s choice of explanation, avoiding disclosure of supplies destined for the Houthis.

 

Donald Trump has reveled all his life in his ability to make deals. In the international sphere, some terms are translated. Lawyers specializing in negotiation use shock as a main tactic, veering between demand and accommodation in order to recalibrate the adversary’s expectations and break down emotional resistance.

It  seems likely that Brent Neiman’s  tariff formula was subject to Trump’s direct modification, for the purposes of:

• Negotiation shock.
• Brinkmanship.
• Political exigency, to establish a new normal before political or popular resistance develops.

Quoting from (Axios) Trump up, Dems down in new polls; Politics Part 7,

The deficit, that killer of nations, is mentioned less and less as the menace steadily grows. The choices offered so far: let the ill and elderly die in the street, or go broke as a nation….

Something has to be done.  But he difficulty of doing is illuminated by a napkin calc.

The 2023 World Bank  figure for  U.S. foreign trade, as a percentage of GDP, the latest published, is 25%.

Quoting from (IMF) Recession: When Bad Times Prevail,

They typically last about a year and often result in a significant output cost. In particular, a recession is usually associated with a decline of 2 percent in GDP. In the case of severe recessions, the typical output cost is close to 5 percent.

The imposition of tariffs at the levels of April 2nd  would have an effect that does not appear to have been anticipated, since it has not been studied with any significance. It would not result in a proportionate decline of imports. It would result in a supply chain collapse, as exporters cut their inventories, smashing the embedded chains of every country, including ours. You don’t buy what you may not be able to sell. A liquidity crisis would follow, a polite term for mass bankruptcy. The falling bond market, as large players seek liquidity, anticipates this. The supply chain  pile-up could result in a loss of GDP as high as 25%, five times that of a severe recession, a contraction not seen since  1929.

The napkin calc is just 25 divided by 5, a genuine black swan. You can get a little intuition from Largest Traffic Accident Pile-Ups In History.

Shock or brinkmanship may seem expedient tactics to circumvent the tedium of trade negotiations. But besides the Great Depression of 2025, another risk accrues, the loss of the goodwill of the United States, symbolized by Fort Knox, “the almighty dollar”, and the premium for the companies that trade on U.S. stock exchanges. For another context, see Dear President Trump, The Ghost of Henry Kissinger Redux.

Some on the  extreme right are promulgating the equivalent of an industrial Walden, with a broad return to smokestack industry. Let’s not overdo it.  Increased  representation of heavy industry is vital. But profit margins are lower, and the opportunities to multiply margins with productivity technology are limited. There is nothing inherently virtuous about it. Yet some people want the physicality of making things, and wouldn’t trade for white collar.

Peter Navarro  wants to make bicycles, an excellent starter industry for the world’s poorest countries. It leverages little more than basket weaving. Make reality of dreams instead. That’s what we’re good at. Let’s avoid ideology.  Make the jobs people want.

This is the time when the political opposition should devise practical, compatible alternatives or modifications of Trump’s program.

We must, indeed, all hang together or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately.

Benjamin Franklin