See Houthis Claim Saudi Territory in Big Battle.

The Houthis will take Aden within two years, + or – one. Before we get academic, there is an expression among those who patronize the cruel sport of dog fighting: It’s not the dog in the fight, it’s the fight in the dog.

Now let’s get academic. The Saudis sent their best minds to the best schools of diplomacy. There they acquired a core belief about inviolability of nation states, which surfaced in  1648 with the Peace of Westphalia. This charming idea became quaint after this series of treaties ended a single war. Nevertheless, confusing legitimacy with utility, the Saudis decided to literally buy it. They put together a disjointed alliance in which a common grievance that causes a fighter to risk death was replaced by the attraction of Saudi dollars. Loosely, the forces of the internationally recognized government of Yemen are mercenary. Some actually are mercenaries.

The Houthis are angry, while the Saudi backed forces are greedy. If you wish, you may replace “greed” with  ambition. Between the two words, which dog has more fight?

By contrast, the UAE are a pragmatic bunch. They reasoned that it was unlikely the Republic of Yemen (Presidential Leadership Council) forces could regain Houthi territory. The grievance they identified, which would create the dog with fight in the dog, was the desire of the inhabitants of South Yemen to be returned to their former status as a separate nation. which had actualized as the South Yemen insurgency. There is a broad cultural split between the North and South. The North is more tribal; the South more cosmopolitan, where both words are relative to the region.

By 2017, this insurgency had organized as the Southern Transitional Council. With UAE backing, it seized and held a large swath of territory roughly corresponding to the former state of South Yemen. Saudi opposed this, because they wanted the Houthis safely encapsulated within a larger state. They imagined that they could buy a better dog. In late  2025 to early 2026, forces of the Presidential Leadership Council, acting as a Saudi proxy, dismembered the Southern Transitional Council. Saudi placed their reliance entirely on the PLC. But in dog units, they had bought a cocker spaniel to go up against the Houthi pit bull.

That is the end of the story, unless, perchance, Saudi  and UAE unite to recreate the pit bull that was available and rejected. This cannot happen because Saudi diplomats went to the best schools, where they learned about the Peace of Westphalia, and the associated diplomatic principle that requires locking two people in one room with a guard at the door, until one kills the other, or something resembling a hell of eternal discord results.

The principle at play may be appreciated in this documentary about cock fighting:

***Cockfighting: How and Why***