2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV), Wuhan, China; Quarantine is Correct Response

The current state of knowledge is posted at (CDC) 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV), Wuhan, China.

The Washington Post, Wired, et al., question the quarantine of Wuhan. They cite multiple experts who say the measure cannot possibly stop the spread of the virus. That is true, yet the quarantine is still the right measure. The why is slightly subtle.

In a national disaster, emergency teams mobilize from unaffected areas. If the whole country were hit with disaster simultaneously, there would be no places to draw from. The Wuhan quarantine has a modest goal, to slow down propagation.

If 2019-nCoV, which is a virus, is a typical pathogen,

  • There are many more sub-clinical cases than overt diagnosed.
  • Those who recover will have at least temporary immunity.
  • When a certain fraction of the populace has acquired some immunity, herd immunity kicks in. When depends on the transmission efficiency of the virus.
  • When herd immunity manifests, new cases drop to a background level. This is thought to have occurred with West Nile virus. Mortality declines as well, as the most likely to die are the easiest to infect.
  • When this state of near-normalcy is approached, the Wuhan quarantine will be lifted. A pool of first responders with acquired immunity is now available to fan out from Wuhan to other hot spots.
  • For an untypical pathogen, look no further than Norwalk virus. We’re lucky it doesn’t kill; it breaks the mold for infectivity and acquired immunity, which does not happen. If Norwalk were less conspicuous and more lethal, transmitting via cough instead of vomit, we’d be in trouble.

This is the typical path to equilibrium. There are all kinds of worst cases. The mortality rate has been stated as 2.5%, concentrated among elderly and those with preexisting conditions. Now suppose 2019-nCoV is a really odd pathogen,  always causing overt symptoms, with 100% infection rate, infecting everyone in Wuhan, or elsewhere in China with clinical cases.

It implies that 2.5% of the Wuhan population die. One doesn’t like to think of such unlikely horrors, but it has to be considered by planners. It would amount to the almost simultaneous deaths of 35 million in China.

This has happened in the historical past. Before the discovery of germs and proper sanitation, cholera, typhus, and the Black Death decimated civilizations. The world outside of Africa has been spared Ebola,  a zoonosis that broke out from handling bush meat.  Human-to-human transmission in Africa is enhanced by social customs rare in other locales. But note, 2019-nCoV originates from the China version of bush meat.

For the Ebola response debacle, see Ebola, Rats, Lice, and History, and Hans Zinsser Part 1 and Part 2.

Part 2 critiques the phlegmatic approach of CDC/NIH to an Ebola vaccine. A handful of companies specialize in rapid vaccine development, direct from the genome. The system by which vaccines are approved is driven by safety. A vaccine that takes mere weeks to produce in small quantities engages an approval process of years. This is appropriate because most public-health vaccines are for widespread, non-emergency use.

Perhaps by tradition rooted in the 1976 swine flu fiasco, the cost of “no vaccine for 2019-nCoV ” is set for typical epidemiology. Yet the 1918 Spanish flu was untypically deadly for an airborne pathogen.

The timeline for use of an 2019-nCoV vaccine  has been quoted as a year or more. A lot of nursing homes could empty out in the course of another phlegmatic response. The cost/benefit analysis could have an unpleasant surprise.

It would be appropriate to:

  • Activate the existing national security protocols for rapid vaccine production.
  • Run the ferret preclinical tests, and Phase 1, ASAP.
  • For Phase 2 safety and immunogenic  trials, accept foreign results.
  • Begin large scale production before completion of Phase 3 trials of effectiveness, which may be abbreviated in  event of bad surprise.
  • If the cost/benefit ratio changes in the near future,  specialist companies can produce millions of doses per week.
  • Create multiple strategies to deal with antigenic shift.
  • This applies to antiviral drugs, should any be discovered.

If quarantines are instituted here, accept it with grace for the lives to be saved.


Dear Hillary, About Bernie

Dear Hillary,

Something came out in CNN I think we should talk about. (CNN)Clinton says ‘nobody likes’ Sanders and won’t commit to backing him if he’s the Democratic nominee. Quoting you,

“Nobody likes him, nobody wants to work with him, he got nothing done.”

This brings me to our fateless encounter on a New Jersey Transit train. I think it was about 10 days before you announced. You were returning from a visit to the Woodrow Wilson School of  Public Affairs and International Affairs at Princeton University. Since Amtrak does not stop at Princeton Junction, NJT ran the only trains that would get you there.

I had boarded the 2:57 super-express at Trenton, bound for NY Penn Station. The mid-afternoon “super express” was new on the timetable, so not a lot of people had adjusted their schedules, and ridership was low. The first car was empty, so I spread myself across two opposing benches. Each Arrow car had two sets of these super-sized seats, one on each side the aisle.

Thirteen minutes later, when the train stopped at Princeton Junction, the car was still empty, except for me. You got on, and immediately spread your things out on the other double opposing benches, immediately across the narrow aisle. The doors closed, and we were juxtaposed, alone if not together, for the next 21 minutes, until the next stop, New Brunswick.

Some people may marvel at the enormous miscellany of information in this blog. There are no research assistants. It all comes out of my mental attic, as messy and compendious as my house. It is not photographic, except for the cerebral section titled Menagerie of Curiosities. Referring to the Menagerie, I identified you by your handbag. I had a flashback; I was holding an old printed issue of Time or Newsweek, with a picture of you on a tarmac holding the “Silver Blimp.”

The Silver Blimp is a capacious elongate ellipsoid about two feet on the major axis, made of lightweight material, covered in reflective silver mylar. It resembles a uranium nucleus that has just absorbed a neutron, and is about to fission. Your theory is that people would be so attracted to the handbag, they would ignore the owner.  You were wrong.  I sent this question to my memory banks:

Probability( This person =

Hilliary Clinton _given_ CARRIES: SILVER_BLIMP).

I added a few more clauses:

          • Wears( Denim Skirt).
          • Shoes(sneakers)
          • Intellect = Alpha.
          • Physical resemblance=high.
          • Demeanor=chilly.
          • Handbag( lipstick & Kleenex = NO).

We continued our fateless encounter with sidelong glances. In this activity, you are clearly superior to me.  While I had to turn my head a full 15 degrees, your glance required only half the angle. Meanwhile, the answer came back:

Is_Hillary_Clinton(CONFIRMED, P=99%)

You were not at ease. While I could have checked my email on my phone, I opened up my laptop. This seemed to take the edge off. You took an appropriately pink iPhone out of the Blimp . You seemed engrossed in a pdf of earth shaking importance, the fate of the Western World, at a distance of 2 feet. To read a phone at 2 feet, one has to be very farsighted in ways that go beyond foreign policy. My astigmatism gets lost over 6 inches. I guess I would be a very short-sighted politician.

This was my big chance! Concealed within my pocket, I had magic cards advertising Intel9.us.  I printed them at Walmart. If somehow, I could get you to accept a card…? We continued to exchange sidelong glances.

I could slide it onto your seat. I could proffer one held in the classic cigarette grasp. Everybody who has heard this story asks if you had a magic button that would have resulted in my being taken away in chains. Temptation and fear, in balance. I could try an ice-breaker. Yes, let’s do! I summoned all the resonance I had accumulated in years of arguing about overcharges, and squeaked out, as my voice rose about 2 octaves,

“Excuse me. Do you have an interest in international relations?”

For the first and only time, you made eye contact. You replied, in a tone so close to Absolute Zero  that it would liquefy helium,


A Jainist gives a bug more love. I skittered back into my hole. The train stopped at New Brunswick. The car began to fill. The conductor looked at your items, and said, “Excuse me ma’am, you’re going to have to move your things. The car is filling.”

It wasn’t, really. But as you compacted, methinks you doth protested too loudly, talking to yourself, but widely audible. Now we had both been squashed, me by reality, and you by ignorance. He didn’t know who you were.

I’ve heard good things about you, and things that require rebuttal. You took care of your mother in her last years. I did too, so I know what it means. We both miss our mothers, and are unafraid to say so. But  our mutual fateless encounter was a demonstration of elitism, both to the stranger and the factotum. Perhaps, when we shared an empty car, there was the possibility of danger. But when the car filled, no attempt was made to engage. This echoes the observations of some, not all, of those who have worked with you. Perhaps I saw only one side of the coin, but must there always be two?

It bears hypothetical comparison. Would:

  • Bernie talk my ear off?
  • Elizabeth treat me to a cogent, if boring, monologue?
  • Joe affably misquote himself?
  • Donald give me a hug?
  • Vladimir Putin invite me to Russia and award me a medal?
  • Barack discuss his reading list, perhaps the only two-way exchange for my  empty train car?

Can the modern political world dispense with kissing babies and pressing the flesh? Is it necessary only for particular constituencies, or is it an acid test for any aspirational pol, proof of the basic human connection?

Hillary, don’t be mad. You know where to find me. I emailed you the next morning.











Davos: T-18 Years and Counting; Blade Runner, Coming to a World Near You

How will Androids Remember Us?

(24×18″, Oil on panel. Click to enlarge. There may be a delay.)

Dear Friends in Spirit,

In preface, I offer for your consideration my 2017 Address to Davos; Avoiding the New Dark Ages, in five parts. It is ever more timely.

Coming to a World near you:

Blade Runner

(CNN) Trump administration abruptly cancels 4 Iran briefings

(CNN) Trump administration abruptly cancels 4 classified Iran-related briefings. Quoting,

The sudden briefing cancellations come as some lawmakers, particularly Democrats, continue to question the administration’s justification for killing Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. Senators appear likely to rebuke President Donald Trump soon in the form of a vote on a war powers resolution to limit his military actions in Iran.

There is a suspicion that the claim is invented, to circumvent the War Powers Resolution. While I cannot refute this suspicion, any similar question about Hezbollah is a special circumstance.

The English translation of “Hezbollah” is “Party of God.” Hezbollahs exist in three countries, as separate organizations of native Shiites, all  organized by Iranian “missionaries.”, of whom Qasem Soleimani was the recent chief. Lebanon’s Hezbollah was the second, dating to the early 1980’s.  The first Hezbollah was organized in Iran itself, in 1979. Iraq’s Hezbollah dates to about 2003.

Prior to 9/11, Hezbollah (Lebanon) was considered the most dangerous terror threat to U.S. soil. In contrast to other terror groups then extant, Hezbollah (Lebanon) was noteworthy for competent command/control, execution, and even counterintelligence. (CBS) Major CIA network unraveled by Hezbollah, in 2011. Hezbollah skillfully exploited an encryption error in the group’s secure radios.

The similarity of characters of the three Hezbollahs is the result of Iranian leadership. Opinions vary whether the 1983 United States embassy bombing in Beirut was an Hezbollah operation, disguised by the adoption of a “brand” in the form of the Islamic Jihad Organization. But there is general agreement that the attack was ordered by Iran.

The Iran Hostage Crisis of 1979-1981, in which the revolutionary government of Iran seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran, hints at a pattern. It continues with the 12/31 attack on the Baghdad embassy Iran is unrestrained by diplomatic norms from attacks on U.S. embassies.

Iran wants to kick the U.S. out of Iraq.  Even with no intelligence, the embassy and consulates are at risk as targets of opportunity.

This does not address whether the intelligence about 4 embassies is fabricated. If it is not, the fearsome capabilities of Hezbollah counterintelligence puts sources at risk from disclosure. (CNN) 3 detained on suspicion of leaking Soleimani’s movements to US. If informants survive Iraq’s justice, they will not survive Hezbollah’s.

Sources for this kind of intelligence must be protected by the narrowest possible distribution. To reveal which embassies are known to be targeted could be fatal to some.



20 Years of Vladimir Putin; Russian Gov. Resigns, Part 1

(CNN) Russian government resigns as Putin proposes reforms that could extend his grip on power.

Inspired by Russia’s adversarial attitude towards the West, media coverage is almost uniformly negative. What else could be expected towards a government that has been described as a kleptocracy, with such noteworthy achievements as lending a helping hand to Assad’s use of poison gas in Syria, Novichok in Salisbury, (NY Times) Syria hospital bombings, Ukraine invasion, and nuclear cruise missiles that make mini-Chernobyls? Have I left anything out? Sure, but on the chance that Putin reads this, I won’t dig deeper.

Every leader is the product of the society he or she is trying to lead. When we study history, we encounter for the most part the biographies of rulers  who, by modern Western standards, were barbarous. Passers-by of London Bridge between 1300 and 1660 remarked on the endless rows of heads impaled on stakes.

This has not blinded modern historians to the subtleties of those times. That mix was the crucible of the modern English speaking world. Putin’s Russia has the contrasts of a society in flux. While some elements of the state remain barbarous, Putin’s inner circle seems touchingly modern — provided we exclude the Kremlin’s criminal element from our view.  On the occasions I have engaged Russian intellectuals, I’ve found modern minds. This is one portent of future greatness, not the shallow yearning to be a “great power.”

Patterns of history cannot be refuted and should not be ignored. They  can rarely be avoided. Russia is a PITA, but there is more going on in Russia than can be expressed in short-form journalism. Much of it can be viewed vicariously, through the eyes of a ruler. If we are open to seeing with the ruler’s eyes, to experiencing the peculiar bond between the ruler and the ruled; and the fears for the role and for the nation, we get something vastly additive to the boilerplate dished out by think-tanks.

In March ’17, I decided that Putin deserved an “apology”, which in the original Greek means , not “I’m sorry”, but something like the defense  a trial lawyer provides for a client. In comparison with the unknowable facts, it could be true, false, or a mix. The only requirement of this apology is that it be favorable to Putin, and not definitively refutable.

In Alexei Navalny, Poisoned?, I wrote,

Putin’s bargain with the Devil, by which it can be argued that he saved Russia from chaos, involved co-opting all the elements of Russian society, and he has never found a way to pay it off. But there is also a political reason of some legitimacy why Navalny must not be allowed to rise.

(Moscow Times) ‘Not Everything Works Out’: Medvedev’s Career, in Photos.. Quoting,

As Medvedev resigned, Putin thanked him for what he had achieved, adding: “Not everything worked out of course — but then, nothing ever works out totally.” The newly resigned prime minister will now serve as deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, which Putin chairs.

Putin’s remark, and dismissal of the government is incompletely explained by the desire to hold onto power. It offers the possibility that he will now try to pay down that unholy bargain. The price of failure is a system so entirely dependent on his character, it cannot survive his passing. Most autocrats don’t appreciate this point. Putin may be the exception. Perhaps the wisdom of  Vladimir Bukovsky holds meaning to him:

“The movers and shakers of today have little interest in digging for the truth. Who knows what one may come up with? You may start out with the communists, and end up with yourself.”

But first, let’s see where he has been, the visceral Russian experience of decay and stasis, the rescue of a state in collapse, while viewing the West from a remote point of view.

To be continued shortly.


Ukraine 737 Crash – Iran Shot it Down

(CNN) Ukrainian Boeing plane crash in Iran, investigators hunt for clues. Former NTSB manager Peter Goelz remarks on the startling appearance of the fireball.

The estimate is that Iran shot it down by accident.

The main hypothesis that avoids a hostile act is an uncontained engine failure. This occurs when a rapidly rotating fan or turbine explodes from centrifugal force on a defective part.

The instantaneous appearance of a fireball has not been a feature of previous engine explosions.  Of the 13 that have occurred since 1973, three have featured large fires:

Both of the above  occurred on takeoff rolls that were successfully aborted. They featured large wing fires that could have resembled the Ukraine accident if seen at altitude.

In the other 10 incidents, fire did not occur, or was  minimal.

A large fire requires a lot of fuel. The 737 has a tank in each wing, and one or two belly tanks along the center. Cellphone videos of the crash may be important, since it is unlikely Iran will release the black boxes before erasing them. Photometric analysis of a video, measuring the brightness of individual pixels, may indicate a belly tank fire. Since the belly area has not in the past examples been impacted by engine explosions, it may indicate:

  • An engine explosion with extreme violence, enough to puncture the belly area with shrapnel.
  • Explosion of an antiaircraft missile with a proximity fuse.

This is ground for mere suspicion, an atypical accident on an unusual day. But there is a separate factor that allows laying odds.

(NY Times 6/22/2019) U.S. Carried Out Cyberattacks on Iran on 6/20. Quoting,

An additional breach, according to one person briefed on the operations, targeted other computer systems that control Iranian missile launches…Officials have not publicly outlined details of the operation. Air defense and missile systems were not targeted, the senior defense official said, calling media reports citing those targets inaccurate.

But targeting air defense was technically possible.  (Times of Israel) US cyber attack on Iran exploited flaw in heavily guarded network, experts say.

Citing US official sources, American media last week reported that the Army Cyber Command had crippled the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s air defense units that shot down a sophisticated drone on June 20.

I  take the denials stated to the Times at face value. Someone said, “we could have”, and it morphed by human exaggeration into “we did this.”

For Iran, the nut is not whether air defenses were in fact disabled. It is the fact that the U.S. can jump into air-gapped Iranian networks with ease. (An air-gapped network has no electronic connection to other networks.)

So prior to the missile attacks in the early hours of 1/8, the Iranians did what is prudent in the face of a cyber superpower: they air-gapped their air defense computer network, breaking it into local pieces, reliant on human-to-human communication.

The three notorious shoot-downs of our time, KAL007, MH17, and Iran Air 655, were mistakes. Mistakes happen because radar doesn’t show all the features or paint job of a plane. Now we can work out what I think happened:

  • A radar blip is a featureless “blob”. By itself, it’s a mystery.
  • Every commercial airplane carries a transponder, a kind of automatic two-way radio.
  • When air traffic surveillance radar interrogates a plane with a transponder, the transponder replies. Now a little ID code appears on the screen next to the blip.
  • When, in anticipation of retaliation, Iran air-gapped their network, their surveillance radar was unable to send the ID information over to the AA batteries.
  • An AA missile battery, disconnected from the larger network, detected the Ukraine flight. In a confused telephone conversation, they were unable to resolve their radar blip with air-traffic control radar.
  • Some underling turned a key and hit the big red button.

The cost: 82 Iranian lives. At Soleimani’s funeral, 65 died in a stampede. This is the cost exacted by fate, or your deity if you have one,  for the privilege of killing one American contractor.

At times like these, even the most devout wonder if God is on their side.


Did Iran Aim to Miss?

(CNN) Some administration officials believe Iran intentionally missed areas with Americans.

This possibility depends upon:

  • Where the missiles impacted in relation to the target.
  • Population density of the impact area.
  • CEP (Circular error probable) of the missile.. This is the average of the distance of the actual impact point from the target.

These are the tells:

  • If a bunch of impact points cluster together, but hitting an empty area, near the target, it suggests that Iran really wanted the missiles to land there.
  • If the cluster is far from the target, it’s bad guidance, from bias error.
  • If the missile impacts cluster together, but kill Iraqis, it suggests bad guidance. This can happen from bias that makes all the rockets drift in the same direction,  like loaded dice.
  • If the impact points are spread out on the map, it suggests bad guidance.

Only the first is a good demo.  Here “near” and “far” are relative to the CEP, the average error. Large CEP = bad guidance system. Small CEP = good guidance system. But how can we tell if the missile was bad, or the aim was deliberately off? From years of watching missile tests, the CEP of a missile type is known to the intelligence community.:

  • If the  CEP is thought to be 100 yards, and it hits 200 yards from the target, it’s bad guidance, because it’s too risky.
  • If the CEP is 10 yards, and it hits 50 yards from the target, that’s good guidance.

Now imagine you are Khamenei, and you want to prove to the Great Satan that you can put U.S. forces at risk, while avoiding retaliation. You want a demo:

  • The more convincing the demo, the riskier for Iran.
  • The less convincing the demo, the safer it is.
  • Assume the Iranians are counting cards at the blackjack table. They sure aren’t playing strip poker.

Al Assad Airbase is in the Syrian Desert of western Iraq, where almost nobody lives.

  • If the missiles hit in tight clusters, away from barracks, yet close enough to give worry, it suggests an accurately guided missile that was intentionally set for the “wrong” impact point. It doesn’t have to be accurate to save Iraqis, because the local population is close to zero.
  • If the missiles straddle the base, with some coming close to barracks, it suggests bad guidance, risking an accidental hit that could start a war.

Iran had to be careful with the U.S. consulate in  Erbil, which is at the northern edge of the built-up area. (Google Earth, 36°14’08.21″ N 43°59’20.86″ E ). An impact south of that has high risk of civilian casualties. An impact 1500 feet  north of the consulate, just north of an irrigation channel, would impact farmland, avoiding subdivided but vacant lots south of it. This is the strongest indication of a demonstration.

We can’t draw this conclusion if the impact clusters are loose. For a good demonstration of strength, they have to be tight. If the clusters are loose, aim-to-hit cannot be excluded.

Why did Iran choose this, if it was a choice?

Khamenei stated that he wanted the response to come from inside Iran, and be directed against military targets. This was to satisfy the national urge to revenge. The need is shown by the 65 Iranians who died in a stampede at Soleimani’s funeral. Martyrdom was on display.

The Iranians reflected on how well deniable actions have worked for them: damaging the enemy while mostly avoiding reciprocation. With the death of a U.S. contractor, they discovered a level  of conflict that triggered a U.S. response. They will now try to estimate what that level is in general terms, and stay below it.

The Soleimani killing has a different meaning for us and for them. To us, it is the lawful killing of a combatant who was out to kill U.S. forces. We drew a red line. Iran has drawn a reciprocal line: an attack on Iranian notables in Iraq is an attack on Iran.

Besides expanding the idea of Iran to include Iraq, the demonstration  is intended to restore  immunity from U.S. attack of  Iranian  commanders, continuing superior leadership of Iraq/Iran militias.

The use of proxies to shield the aggressor is not new. It was used with partial success in the Vietnam War, and most recently by Russia in eastern Ukraine. International law is blind to proxies like it is to undeclared war. This is the drawback of a voluntary code that recognizes the “nation” as a basic division of humanity.


Solemani Killing Makes no Difference; Politics Muddys; Remember Pearl Harbor

This  assertion is unrepresented in the polemics surrounding the strike:

The killing of Soleimani does not significantly bias the future. It does not  improve or worsen the U.S. position to a measurable or predictable degree. The effect on future events is limited to detail. This includes the total number of U.S. casualties, although attempts at specific, high profile people are more likely.

This option, “no change”, is typically ignored in debates, because it is no basis for approval or criticism. Yet the claims in favor of “+change” or “change” are severely flawed:

Claim: Soleimani’s killing aborts or interferes with attacks on  U.S. forces. While Iran’s plans in the short term may have been disrupted, Iran has a deep   bench in Quds Force leadership.  To be effective, a decapitation strike has to knock off most of the bench, which this strike did not do.

Claim: Killing not  justified. (CNN) Skepticism mounts over Trump’s claims of an imminent threat. The language of skeptics derives from:

  • International law: A sovereign state is entitled to defend itself from imminent threat. Skeptics claim imminence is not documented.
  • Presidential war powers: The killing of an individual who is not universally identified as a terrorist.

These arguments are viable only in the moment of time. It is natural for the public to focus on the moment, but we need to expand the moment into the present, and the present into histories that encompass both the past and the future.

(Reuters) Inside the plot by Iran’s Soleimani to attack U.S. forces in Iraq presents imminence  in the form of a good story, revealing prior intent. Reliant on unnamed sources, one might suspect it was “cooked”. I don’t think it was. Delving into the past substantiates it. From U.S. Debacle in Iraq? Part 1,

Missile attacks were anticipated in Iran warns U.S., Israel of revenge after parade attack; Missile Attack on U.S. Forces? Attacks did not immediately result, though supply of missiles to militia occurred around that time. (Reuters)  Exclusive: Iran moves missiles to Iraq in warning to enemies.

The above implies a defensive intent, which may have been justified by John Bolton’s demeanor. But Iranian Missile Movements; Open Source Versus Technical Intelligence quotes (NBC) U.S. officials: Iran official OK’d attacks on American military:

…the Iranian regime has told some of its proxy forces and surrogates that they can now go after American military personnel and assets in the region, according to three U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence.

which is good for intent. What was missing at the time was a final sign-off on the attacks, a date stamp on these operations.  A documented date stamp is the focus of skepticism for some.

The past of 8 months corroborates the present. The more past is included, the more difficult it is to suspect that the story is cooked.

Nota bene: Except for occasional products of the CIA history division, “proof” provided by the intelligence community never satisfies legal rules of evidence. In law, the prosecution is required to produce the evidence, based in the main on witness testimony. With spy work, the greater obligation is to conceal the witness.

Both political parties have attempted  manipulation of intelligence. Successful manipulation depends upon the character of the intelligence community. That of the senior IC component, the CIA, has changed several times since formation in 1947.  It has at times been susceptible, or resistant, to political pressure. Consider:

Quoting from What is Intel Proof?,

“At this time, the U.S. Intelligence Community has not identified any information from the recovered weapon systems used in the 14 September attacks on Saudi Arabia that definitively reveals an attack origin.”

This is very conservative, absent bias favorable to the administration position. I said I would go further, with circumstantial evidence:

The case against Iran is supported by more physical evidence than Scott Peterson, yet we withhold the verdict of “guilty.” We do this to protect us from ourselves, from intelligence manipulated by politics.

We are not done expanding back in time from the  moment.On May 8, 2018, the U.S. withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, subjecting Iran to paralyzing economic sanctions. But the pot didn’t really begin to boil until, on April 22, 2019, sanction waivers were allowed to lapse. (NPR) U.S. Won’t Renew Sanction Exemptions For Countries Buying Iran’s Oil.

This, not the killing of Soleimani, is the real driver of events. Now let’s complete the picture by expanding back to a date that will live in infamy, December 7, 1941. The Imperial Navy of Japan attacked Pearl Harbor with carrier based aircraft, the missile of the day.

It was called a surprise attack. Yet going even further back reveals the ultimate cause. Japan was already an expansionist,  militaristic power. Almost devoid of natural resources, petroleum was critical. No one can say that war in the Pacific could have been averted, though when F.D.R. cut off oil exports to Japan in Japan 1941, it became mechanically certain. From Attack on Pearl Harbor,

Japan’s final proposal, delivered on November 20, offered to withdraw from southern Indochina and to refrain from attacks in Southeast Asia, so long as the United States, United Kingdom, and Netherlands ceased aid to China and lifted their sanctions against Japan.[37] The American counter-proposal of November 26 (November 27 in Japan), the Hull note, required Japan completely evacuate China without conditions and conclude non-aggression pacts with Pacific powers. On November 26 in Japan, the day before the note’s delivery, the Japanese task force left port for Pearl Harbor.[citation needed]

So the events of the moment are anticipated by the Hull Note of 1941. History gives us  the driver, which is not the killing of an Iranian notable.

George Santayana is reputed by some to have said, “Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.”  Maybe, maybe not. I would  put it another way. If you’re going to drive your adversary into an unbearable corner, if you’re going to have a Rumble in the Jungle, make sure you really are Ali, and the other guy is Foreman.

And don’t lead with your chin.




U.S. Debacle in Iraq? Part 2

We continue from U.S. Debacle in Iraq? Part 1.

The situation  has rapidly evolved. (CNN) Trump orders killing of key Iranian commander in Baghdad airport strike, killing Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

I tend agree with the implication of Peter Bergen’s op/ed, The killing of Iran’s General Soleimani is hugely significant;  the decision to target was the consequence of Trump’s temperate response to previous aggression, most notably the Aramco attacks of 9/14/2019. Sadly, a temperate response can encourage aggression. Would I have made this choice? After hearing about how U.S. forces have for years been Soleimani ‘s victims, I might be unable to say no.

Events are racing ahead in this situation, which has no close historical parallel. There is some resemblance to the ethnic  fragmentation of Europe which occurred in periods of Europe. Before World War I, ethnic tension existed in the disintegrating Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Ottoman Empire, and Bismarck’s design on Alsace-Lorraine. which he obtained in the Franco-Prussian War.

To the above, add an Iranian belief of “entitlement” to Iraq. In each case, there is a weak empire or state, with segments and layers like an orange, and a power that wants to do some peeling. In the present case, Iran’s deeply complex peeling strategy has been complicated by U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Nothing quite like this has come before, but it’s still useful to note some of the historical strategies used by great powers:

  • Overthrow the dictator, and replace him with your own man. The minimal requirement for this is an incompetent army of mercenary character that you indirectly pay through your man. Multiple instances at the end of the colonial period in Africa, notably, in the former Belgian Congo.
  • Invade, depose the dictator, and hope for democracy. This wish fulfillment actually happened in Panama, in 1989. In Iraq, it has taken 15 years to see even the possibility.
  • Save a country from foreign domination by destroying it — Vietnam War, 1955-1975.
  • Empower a popular revolt to change a regime — Libya, in 2011. The result was chaos.
  • Buy loyalty and alliances, and use these as tools to assemble principalities into a whole. A resounding success, the British Raj of India, 1858-1947.
  • Repel the invader with military force, and till fertile ground for democracy — the Korean War, 1950 – 1953.
  • Empower the  youth without hope for a future. This is not an historical choice.

These are patterns, so few they are worth noting. They do not apply to Iraq because the country is enmeshed in  hyper-acute politics, reminiscent of the early French Revolution. Ethnic groups whose relative positions were formerly defined by Saddam now haggle it out in a feverish tribal system with trappings of democracy. Those who buy into it are participants in various  “rewards programs.”

The fervor of Iraq is nothing like the quiet that followed the 2003 invasion. Then, as in Japan in 1945, a fresh start was possible. In Iraq today, the structure can’t be dismantled; Iran owns a good part of it. The most telling part of the U.S. Embassy attack was the aftermath. On leaving, the attackers cleaned the area. Iran’s message: We have total control. You have nothing.

The disaffected Shiite young, who have been left out of the rewards program, are  last on the list. The movement may have started in Basra, a town with especially miserable municipal services, and spread north. If it were possible to develop this group, it would be a counterbalance to Iran. But they are not organized. An organization can be enabled; a mob cannot.

Nothing besides the possibilities of disaffected youth is remotely suggestive of methods to improve the hospitality of Iraq towards U.S. forces. There is a parliamentary initiative, which Iran is trying to rig, to expel them. Although the embassy cannot be seized, Iran can make it useless.

As before, the opponent is Machiavellian. Iran’s retaliation will involve urban sanctuary for weapon emplacement. U.S. retaliation resulting in collateral casualties would be very helpful to Iran. Attempts by the U.S. to develop domestic allies would be met with assassination.

The cause of unwanted war is the failure of one or both sides to apprise the core interests of the opponent, and the amount of pain it is willing to take. Even though Qasem Soleimani  deserved the ultimate sanction, Iran’s ultimate fuel is not oil; it’s martyrdom. It is central to  Shiism, and their religious myth: Ali ibn Abi Talib died in battle, the first martyr of this branch of Islam. The declaration of martyrdom of Soleimani gives Iran’s religious establishment a powerful tool to sell war to the recently demonstrating Iranian youth. It also gags criticism.

Since in Shiism, a life is more valuable once martyred, while a sunken tanker is worthless, I might have argued for a  material, deniable response. And if I seen a list of U.S.  dead at Soleimani’s hands, I might have changed my mind again.

We shall soon see if each side understands what the other is capable of.  Iran may commit ground forces to Shiite urban areas, from which they cannot be removed except by ground assault and urban warfare, including:

  • Basra.
  • Qatif and Al-Ahsa, where the Shiite population of Saudi Arabia is concentrated.
  • Mortar attacks originating from within the urban sprawl of Baghdad.
  • Hostage abduction, car bombs, drones, and the like.

From the Vietnam War on, the chief adversarial assumption has been that the U.S. cannot accept casualties even on what might be a favorable exchange ratio. We might ask an analogous question of Iran’s infrastructure.

The swarming small boat naval threat, with ship-borne missiles, and Silkworms near the Strait of Hormuz, have been long anticipated.  Does Iran anticipate that their naval forces and oil infrastructure would survive retaliation?