The current estimate is that Trump intends to order an invasion, pending the satisfaction of certain prerequisite conditions.

The widely held opinion is that Trump is bluffing. Bluffing would be ineffective, since Maduro is hostage, as well as patron, of the cartels, with no room to respond to U.S. demands.

The decision is contingent on certain data  from the field not yet supplied to the administration.

The anticipated force is one corps,  an ambiguous term, perhaps 40,000 to 80,000 ground troops. This is likely a point of contention within the administration.  (The Hill) Top admiral’s retirement sets off alarm bells over Caribbean boat strikes. The resignation of Adm. Alvin Holsey, head of U.S. Southern Command, widely thought related to the boat strikes, may have this weightier motivation. In the 1991 Gulf War, U.S. troop levels reached 697,000. The multinational forces of the 2003 invasion of Iraq peaked at 160,000. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was subsequently criticized for barely adequate force levels, which were supported by covert buy-offs of defending Iraqi forces.

So how could an invasion of Venezuela proceed with such small ground force levels? With these assumptions, which are subject to challenge:

• After seizure of Caracas, organized resistance would cease.
• Caracas is only 7 miles from the sea, though separated from the coast by a mountain range ranging from 2000 to 4000 feet, through which passes a single road. Combined air/ground forces would presumably overcome the advantage of the terrain to the defenders. By contrast, Baghdad is 280 mile straight line from the 2003 zero-line.
• There is a 60 mile lowland alternate route from the east, useful for misdirection.
• The 1989 invasion of Panama involved similar troop levels.
• Defender buyoffs are comprehensive and effective.
• The whole edifice is rotten, historically a risky gamble, but it may be true.
• Current U.S. battle doctrine, full-spectrum dominance, is a force multiplier.
• The presumed magic of “warrior ethos” is real.
• Reversing the ironic observation of  theorist Carl von Clausewitz, the Venezuelans do what we want them to do.

Holsey’s resignation suggests a time line. There is one open source fact that signals  the seriousness of intent. You can figure it out. Get off social media and dig.