Iran’s Next Move? The SAM Trap was an attempt to identify a form of retaliation not unavailable requiring resources. Events have probably moved beyond that.  One commentator has stated that, due to the inability of Iran to project air, other than missiles, or ground forces,  Israel has escalation dominance.

As far as direct confrontation with Israel, this seems reasonable. While we hope for regime change, and events that enable it, there may instead emerge a revised version of the current regime, in which overt expansionism is replaced with stoicism.  Expansionism  would become a revanchist myth, without overt repudiation. If this occurs, Iran’s goal may shift from overt obsession with Israel to regaining relevance in the international community.

Iran’s relevance has, since 1979, taken the form of making trouble for the West and Western allies, creating domestic political pressure that would undermine support for Israel.

Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if Iran’s own oil exports are halted. Years ago, the threat was actualized as Chinese Silkworm missiles embedded in cliffs. Iran may have since added capability to this threat. Nevertheless, it does not seem feasible for a weakened Iran to halt traffic through the Strait via missile attacks for an extended period.  This problem has been war-gamed to the max.

The reader is challenged to devise a method for Iran to halt or greatly diminish traffic through the strait that is more resistant to military reversal than missiles or other elements vulnerable to air attack. From the p.o.v. of the problem, reversal of the blockade should require land invasion or diplomatic concessions.  Extra points if the Iranians can still transport their own oil.

I have an idea, but I’m not spilling the beans. Have fun, but don’t tell the Iranians!