Putting aside human messiness, consider a situation where each juror is like an independent coin flip. Since this is a criminal case, unanimity is required.

If the chance each juror votes for conviction is 99%,  the chance of conviction  is 0.99¹² • 100%=  89%.

If the chance each juror votes for conviction is 95%,  the chance of conviction  is 54%.

If the chance each juror votes for conviction is 90%,  the chance of conviction  is 28%.

If the chance each juror votes for conviction is 85%,  the chance of conviction  is 14%.

This is why the court of public opinion is a mediocre predictor of jury verdicts.

(CNN) ‘Soviet-style purge’: Expert on Putin arresting military brass.

The suggestion is that this is not really motivated by a drive against corruption. If it were, it would be a terrible miscalculation by Putin. He has miscalculated, but not on grounds he knows so well.

The salary of a Russian mid-rank general is around $35K / year, for which his complicity is required in,  since January, an average of 964 daily casualties – delivering young Russian men to death or disability. He could make more slaughtering chickens in the West. So what keeps him going?

Without the corrupt inducements of the Russian military, nothing. Those beneath him on the promotion ladder see their future inducements vanish.

This logic  implies that Putin’s purge must be accompanied by a not-quite-visible element of possibly revised corruption. The present system must continue, perhaps with explicit authorizations from above, in return for the one element that has been a constant of his reign – loyalty.

Watch the colonels, denied the Mercedes of their dreams. (CNN) ‘I’m smiling’: Ret. Lt. Gen. Hertling reacts to Putin news; Putin takes Command.

The pot simmers. Premature, perhaps, but not to be discounted: Power Transition in Russia? Revolution? Part 3 — Has Revolution begun?

***Double, Double Toil and Trouble***

(CNN) US assesses Russia likely launched a counter space weapon last week.

For a description of a conventional, non-nuclear weapon, see Mysterious Russian satellite; It’s a Tristatic Locator.

The Russian weapon inevitably enjoys a cost exchange advantage over the largest category of U.S. spy satellites; cost translates directly to capabilities. Optics for the largest birds require multiple years to manufacture. Several possible mitigations exist:

• Stealth, which is already in use.

• Transition to  platforms with unpredictable mobility (large Delta-v budget), such as the Boeing X-37 space plane.

• Low cost satellites, with severely reduced capability.

This discussion is non-nuclear.

(CNN) China’s newest aircraft carrier heads to sea for first time.

Quoting,

 As for the US Navy’s size advantage over the Fujian, the Ford displaces 100,000 tons and the 10 Nimitz-class ships 87,000 metric tons.

This is incorrect. Ford and Nimitz are within 3000 tons of each other.  The writer may have conflated different load conditions, metric and English ton units, or both.

Quoting,

With a displacement of 80,000 metric tons, the Fujian dwarfs the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) two active carriers, the 66,000-ton Shandong and the 60,000-ton Liaoning.

“Dwarf” is not appropriate. “Incremental” is.

Really interesting questions, such as

• electrical power generation
• performance of the electromagnetic catapult system
• modern armor and survivability
• availability of insensitive munitions, key to survivability
• quality of the structural steel
• weapons system integration
• durability of the propulsion plant

are not addressed. This is sloppy, lazy journalism.

(CNN) House passes key foreign aid package. Quoting,

A number of lawmakers who backed the aid packages today said their views on House Speaker Mike Johnson as a leader changed after the speaker put bills on the floor despite a threat against his job.

Well done, Speaker Johnson. You have secured your place in history.

The long term continuity of U.S. foreign policy remains at risk. See “America First”; Crisis in U.S. Government; Looking for a Gig. Alignments have changed since then, but the principle remains.

(CNN) ISIS claims responsibility for attack in busy Moscow-area concert venue that left at least 60 dead.

This was anticipated; see (CNN) Russia accuses Ukraine of mounting ‘sabotage’ attack across border. Quoting,

The Freedom for Russia Legion, Russian Volunteer Corps, and associated groups are inspirational to ethnic secession.  In the near term, the  [typo corrected] Caucasus will become restive, awakening old   memories and yearnings.

In the cause of Caucasus secession, ISIS is both a natural ally and a viable, importable ideology.

This will force action by Kadyrov, with troops withdrawn from Ukraine.

The alleged video of a Tajik perpetrator’s confession, with an improbable secular motive — “for money”, is likely a fiction contrived to meet the needs of the Russian state, which involve popular support for mobilization.

For further explication, see also (CNN) Priest and six law enforcement officers killed in attacks on synagogues and church in Russia’s Dagestan.

(CNN) House passes bill that could lead to US ban of TikTok.

The recommendation of this blog to the Senate is that TikTok should be banned or subject to forced divestiture.

It is a dagger pointed at the heart of the social media analog to infrastructure.

A masterful performance by a much younger man.  Joe, somehow you dragged the stump right  into the chamber.

The result is a reversal in drama of the two candidates, which if sustained may evolve to actual perception.

(CNN) Russia attempting to develop nuclear space weapon to destroy satellites with massive energy wave, sources familiar with intel say. Quoting,

Russia is trying to develop a nuclear space weapon that would destroy satellites by creating a massive energy wave when detonated, potentially crippling a vast swath of the commercial and government satellites…

See (Wikipedia) Starfish Prime, a 1962 high altitude nuclear test, detonated at an altitude of 250 miles. Quoting,

Starfish Prime caused an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that was far larger than expected, so much larger that it drove much of the instrumentation off scale…

The weaponeers became quite worried when three satellites in low Earth orbit were disabled. These included TRAAC and Transit 4B.[13

Starfish Prime created  artificial  Van Allen radiation belts :

…In the months that followed, these man-made radiation belts eventually caused six or more satellites to fail,[14] as radiation damaged their solar arrays or electronics, including the first commercial relay communication satellite, Telstar, as well as the United Kingdom’s first satellite, Ariel 1.[15] Detectors on Telstar, TRAAC, Injun, and Ariel 1 were used to measure distribution of the radiation produced by the tests.

In 1963, it was reported that Starfish Prime had created a belt of MeV electrons.[17] In 1968, it was reported that some Starfish electrons had remained in the atmosphere for 5 years.[18]

(CNN) House Intel Chairman announces ‘serious national security threat,’ sources say it is related to Russia. Quoting,

One of the sources who has seen the intelligence confirmed that “it is, in fact, a highly concerning and destabilizing” Russian capability “that we were recently made aware of.”

Sensitivity has two  possible roots:

• The need to protect sources and methods.
• Disclosure would affect society at large in a negative way.

“Destabilizing” hints the latter. One of my long-term concerns has been North Korea’s Plutonium, Iran’s Uranium / Suitcase Nukes,

where Russia may have obtained or retained custody of refurbished weapons, with possible deployment in the continental U.S.