Yahoo. Quoting, “The defence ministry of the self-proclaimed Lugansk republic confirmed that Alexey Mozgovoy, the commander of a police battalion in the war-torn region, was among the dead and said it was hunting for the assailants behind the attack.” So let’s round up the usual suspects. Russia makes the list, and here’s a helpful guide … Continue reading Rebel Commander Aleksey Mozgovoy Killed in East Ukraine, Frozen Conflict? →

Since it has proved impossible to gather the “usual suspects” into one room for intensive, brutal interrogation, let’s proceed with informed speculation. Emotional involvement contaminates our thoughts. Since the financial crisis of 2007-2008, Vladimir Putin has betrayed our hopes for a modern, peaceful, westernized Russia. It appears that, since the financial meltdown, Putin lost faith … Continue reading Did Putin Order Nemtsov Murder? →

Matthew Herper’s article in Forbes, “Ebola, Ethics, And The New Normal Of Scary Germs” is good journalism.  It’s centered around an article by Borio and Cox, in the New England Journal of Medicine,  “…arguing that despite the hopes of some public health experts, both vaccines and drugs will need to be tested against control groups that … Continue reading Ebola Vaccines, Medical Ethics, and Manslaughter →

In “Russia is short of soldiers…”, the estimate of 400-650 Russian deaths is provided. It may eventually join the pile of  published wrong guesses. But it is an example of how disparate bits of apparently unrelated information can come together to provide an intelligence estimate. Some of these bits are “general knowledge”, while others would … Continue reading Russian Casualties estimate; a technique note →

If you become a predictor, and make a prediction that is justified by fair use of the tricks of the trade, you are bound to encounter a heckler who wil assail the fallibility of each of your datums. Your datums are things you read, things people said, personality assessments, things that have happened,  things that … Continue reading How to handle hecklers →

Fencing the problem is an important part of the predictor’s toolkit. Sometimes the fence is made of facts; other times, pseudo facts, things that have higher probabilities than the swirling cloud of amorphous possibilities. Since the Sunnis and Kurds have abandoned parliament, one part of the fence is that they are out of the picture. … Continue reading No successor to Maliki named; fencing the problem →