So far, we have: The tendency of pundits towards circular reasoning, imposing a personality on the problem when the problem is the personality. A specific facet of personality. The uncertainty created by the above. A factual fence constructed from the external world, consisting of limitations on how much and how fast an organization can change. … Continue reading Kim Fires 3 Top Military Officers, Part 3
When the quality of information is poor, try to shrink the space in which you have to search for the estimate. It’s like knowing you lost your keys somewhere in your house. This technique, “fencing the problem”, was introduced in Russian Casualties estimate; a technique note. It receives further application in these articles. The fence … Continue reading Kim Fires 3 Top Military Officers, Part2
The fence of almost-facts consists of four negations and three assertions. A common element is a blur between fact, and what Kim is likely to consider as fact. Theories that implicitly predict successful negotiations assume that the end of North Korea’s nuclear program is required for these benefits to occur, which is false: Lifting or … Continue reading The Personality of Kim Jong-un; Fencing; the Ungame, Part 2
Let’s drop the nuclear physics for a bit. People want know what makes Kim Jong-un tick. Theories abound, but no candidate has the quality that says, “this nails it.” In the euphoric moment, political types tend to confuse fact and desire. But the intelligence community is not so easily beguiled. (Reuters) Understanding Kim: Inside the … Continue reading The Personality of Kim Jong-un; Fencing the Problem
If you want to know what goes on inside a nerve gas detection lab, read on. (Guardian) Salisbury nerve agent attack: expert criticises lack of information. Quoting, De Bretton-Gordon said he had reassured people who contacted him asking if he thought they were at risk. “…The CBRN regiment was disbanded in 2011 as part of … Continue reading Novichok, Raman, and Why the Sea is Blue
The North Korea ICBM threat is not visceral. With two brief exceptions, nuclear conflict has never been felt, but only imagined. Because it remains the subject of nightmarish contemplation, open source offers a meaningful fraction of the material chomped on by DoD and the White House. There is enough that we can imagine ourselves “in … Continue reading Mattis: “North Korea ICBM Not a Threat Right Now” Part 1
Reuters: Yemen humanitarian situation likely to worsen with Saleh death: Mattis. Quoting, (But)one thing I think I can say with a lot of concern and probably likelihood is that the situation for the innocent people there, the humanitarian side, is most likely to (get) worse in the short term,” Mattis said. He did not explain … Continue reading Mattis: Yemen Humanitarian to Worsen with Death of Saleh
We continue from Part 1. History is taught as a sequence of cause-and-effect. This is a consequence of a belief in a causal universe, except where religious beliefs supervene. Recently, though, physicists have observed processes where the future appears to affect the past. Doubters may question whether this has any practical effect on our lives. … Continue reading Plan to Defeat ISIS, Part 2
Quoting The Telegraph, Two US officials said on Tuesday night they had intelligence confirming that two Russian Sukhoi SU-24 warplanes were in the skies above the aid convoy at the precise time it was struck, and that the conclusion was that Russia was to blame. It’s worth quoting RT, because, as a state channel, their … Continue reading Russia Bombs Aleppo Aid Convoy; Intentional?
The open-source prediction is that the plane was brought down by an on board bomb. As a prediction, it is almost too late to be interesting. The Brits say yes; Americans maybe; the Russians and Egyptians say, too early to tell. But it’s not too late to examine the question for didactic purposes. A shoulder … Continue reading Egypt Russian Airliner Crash Caused by an On-Board Bomb