Fencing the problem is an important part of the predictor’s toolkit. Sometimes the fence is made of facts; other times, pseudo facts, things that have higher probabilities than the swirling cloud of amorphous possibilities. Since the Sunnis and Kurds have abandoned parliament, one part of the fence is that they are out of the picture. … Continue reading No successor to Maliki named; fencing the problem →

The sample piece, dated 4/24/2014,  is “The revolution in Putin’s head.” 1. DIscount the title. The purpose is to get you to read it. 2. “Former Kremlin operatives, serving officials, diplomats and dissidents that I recently spoke to in Moscow all agreed that Putin, who is a pragmatic leader, has been reborn as a true … Continue reading Meta analysis example; a Reuters opinion piece →

This is for you meat and potato guys, impatient with meta-thoughts. You’re asking, “Where’s the beef?” Invasion of Ukraine is no longer likely. In contrast to the previous Russian build-up, this is not a prelude to invasion. It has to do with the history of that part of the world, which includes many massacres and … Continue reading Ukraine prediction; an Austrian solution →

Russian tanks are again massing on the border with Ukraine. The refusal by separatists of Poroshenko‘s amnesty offer has lead to heavy casualties among them. Since the killing happened within 60 miles of the border, it could presage another Russian land grab. With characteristic perspicacity, Putin observes the world faces “a growing cult of violence“, … Continue reading Russian tanks & Ukraine →

The Thai military coup is the 13th since 1932. The rich/poor split manifests itself in the desire of the poor to be governed by the sister of a crook.  On the part of the rich, there seems to be excessive faith in “trickle-up economics” [sic].  Centrifugal forces in Thailand are a triptych of rich/poor, ethnic, … Continue reading Thailand/Egypt/Ukraine & moral foreign policy →