Reuters reports, “Russia masses heavy firepower on border with Ukraine”. Also from Reuters, “As Russia growls, EU goes cool on eastern promises”. “Eastern Promises” is a pun on the title of an excellent movie. If you’re into indie film, it’s a must-watch. It is a voyeur’s delight, a vision of the unique Russian contribution to … Continue reading Russia Masses Firepower, Next Ukraine Grab?
In the opinion piece, “Strong or weak, bully or buffoon? Will the real Russia please stand up?”, Michael Kofman asks a helluva lot of questions, answers none of them, and decries, “Amateur psychoanalysis has largely replaced professional policy analysis.” Amateur psychoanalysis is frequently practiced in this blog. In response to the question of the title … Continue reading Russia: Psychoanalysis or Policy Analysis?
Although at least one theory of fear arrays the basic emotions on a color wheel, it’s questionable to symmetrize them, because emotions appeared at different points in the evolution of the central nervous system. There is some evidence that reptiles experience pleasure, including one story (citation missing) of an Australian crocodile that surfed for no … Continue reading The Senate Report, Torture, & Anatomy of Fear
Using the list of 17 labels/categories described in Obama Admin Decision Making; Iran/Syria Policy Paralysis Part 2, characterize how some contemporary and historical world leaders think. By considering historical figures, you get to check if your analysis makes any sense. Contemporary figures are useful for actual predictive juice. Depending upon where you live, you may … Continue reading Homework for Aspiring Predictors re 17 Ways of “Knowing”
CNN link. Is there a political interpretation to this move? Donetsk is 479 miles south of Moscow. The January daily mean temperature in Moscow is 20.3F. For Donetsk, it is 24.6F. In winter, Donetsk is a little more than 4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than Moscow. Moscow has the climate that defeated Napoleon and Hitler. Donetsk … Continue reading Russia pulls troops from Ukraine border
In contrast to the recent, crude Russian nationalist drumbeat, CNN has a “View from Russia”, “written by” former Putin advisor Alexander Nekrassov, in the creative style very much in vogue with the western “opinion piece.” Quoting the nut of it, “Although it may be tempting for Washington to overthrow Assad, such a move could backfire … Continue reading Exercise: reading Russian propaganda courtesy of CNN
See Reuters. Conscripts are being deployed, contrary to Russian law. Quoting, “Vitaly says officers tried to force his son – serving mandatory military service – to change his status to a contract soldier, which would legally allow him to serve abroad. Conscripts in Russia are exempt from foreign service. ” Hospitals in Rostov, Moscow, and … Continue reading Russia is short of soldiers for Ukraine; military incapacity seems evident
Many younger readers may not be familiar with the phrase “politics of appeasement“, which is best associated with British P.M. Neville Chamberlain’s misguided attempt to avoid World War II by forcing Czechoslovakia to cede territory. Chamberlain was not the only practitioner. The period over which the Western democracies attempted to appease the Fascist states spanned … Continue reading Ukraine & Politics of Appeasement
On September 30, 1938, Neville Chamberlain, Prime Minister of the U.K., returned from Munich, having negotiated with Hitler to permit annexation by Germany of portions of Czechoslovakia. He said, “I have brought peace for our time.” This was a false hope. Next, Hitler invaded Poland, and World War II followed. David Clarke says that Merkel … Continue reading Germany, Ukraine and “Peace for Our Time”
He is out of office now, but he shook the Iranian system so hard, it rang like a bell, and we got to hear the tone. There is an experiment in systems engineering, called “system identification”, where you’re given a black box which has terminals. You can stimulate the system inside the box with signals, … Continue reading Ahmadinejad the cipher; the putsch that never was?