(CNN) Gupta: I’m stunned Gov. Cuomo said this about health experts.

My heart is on the side of the experts; see Why I Support Dr. Anthony Fauci. At the beginning of the COVID epidemic, almost everyone, expert or ignorant, were mostly wrong about the future. But the experts learned and applied new knowledge, while the ignorant continued to be ignorant. Epidemiologists apply the scientific method. Politicians do not.

But epidemiology has weak predictive powers. New plagues do not replicate old ones that have been studied. Mathematics, which works so well with the hard sciences, has not been successful in predicting the trajectory of COVID. To predict, you have to model. To model, you have to know  the system. The system by which COVID-19 propagates is too complex to model.

A partial transcript of the CNN video, from The Hill:

Neurosurgeon and CNN medical correspondent Sanjay Gupta on Monday said that he was “stunned” by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) casting doubt on the input of experts amid the coronavirus pandemic.

“When I say ‘experts’ in air-quotes, it sounds like I don’t really trust the experts, because I don’t,” Cuomo said in a press briefing Friday.

Cuomo said this in preface to,

“The experts say that the trend for New York should continue to drop. That’s what the experts say…”

Skepticism was Cuomo’s qualifier, since like many of us, he is skeptical of trend predictions that do not take into account the likely effect of the new, more contagious strains. Which language is more broken:

• Cuomo’s ironic observation, which has basis in fact?
• A statistical product that is less informative than the number of sardines per cubic foot of seawater?

This is what happens when epidemiology, a science with weak powers of prediction, is pushed by popular demand to make unreliable predictions, and then skewered by politicians who are forced to make use of the product.

Affronted, the experts quit, because they understood

“When I say ‘experts’ in air-quotes, it sounds like I don’t really trust the experts, because I don’t.”

to mean “The experts are unworthy of public trust, or their guidance should be disregarded”, or “I don’t appreciate you or your job.”

Negative sentiments are appropriate towards Scott Atlas ((CNN) Dr. Scott Atlas Resigns from Corona Virus Task Force), but not for Cuomo’s experts. People like to be appreciated when they deserve it. There is a flaw in the system. Cuomo received a projection that requires a qualifier, preferably supplied by the experts themselves: The propagation of mutant strains makes the projection worthless.

Being smarter than the average bear, Cuomo recognized this. With the impatience of superior intellect, he made this known. His only mistake was not lying. All politicians should be fluent at lying, which can only be acquired with gratuitous practice.

My other favorite quote of Andrew Cuomo is (paraphrased), “America…was never that great”  (CNN) Gov. Cuomo: America was never that great. Tell it like it is, Andrew.

Governor Cuomo, you win the Fortune Cookie Honest Man Award.

*Honest Man Award Ceremony*

The name of this painting: They died for nothing.

(click to enlarge)

Some die for love, others for hate, or patriotism, or greed. These 428,000,  who will be joined by a number that does not yet have an upper bound, died for nothing.

The (Britannica) 30 Years War, offers a striking comparison. By varying assessments, the belligerent armies were largely mercenaries.

The dead, mostly civilian, mostly innocent and uncomprehending, were victims of the mercenaries’ need to eat, and to deny food to the enemy. The prize was power, an abstraction clothed in religious strife.

In that time, armies lived off the land. Sadly, this idea still has representation in modern political thought: the struggle for power, clothed in  ownership of the myth of America, consuming the substance of the body politic. It came down to wearing masks.

In the interest of a broad audience, I’ll skip fixing blame.

Bring us back together, Joe and Kamala.

Work with who you have to.

Find our common ground.

Ideation of a  coup continues. At the center is one very desperate man.

In theory, POTUS is commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The deployment of 20,000  National Guard troops to Washington results in this ideation: “If only I could command those troops, I could overwhelm civil authority.” In the eye of a desperado, the mechanism is martial law.

It would explain the sacking of the Defense Policy Review Board, and the attempt to appoint a new NSA General Council. (CNN) Acting secretary of defense orders NSA chief to install Trump loyalist as agency’s general counsel. Alternately, the appointment could obfuscate impeachment trial testimony regarding presidential communications.

This does not imply a coup is viable, or that a cabal of conspirators even exists. It could simply be mad ideation, or the ideation of a small, a non-viable cabal.

History cautions that successful coups have occurred without force supremacy. The sequestration of key people, such as those responsible for presidential succession, and a hidden power base within government, can suffice.

Until the Inauguration, the defenders of the Constitution have a difficult task, to prevent a coup lead or instigated by POTUS, with these measures:

• Prevent use of the statutory chains of command for illegal, seditious purpose.
• Identify individuals who might facilitate illegal use, and attempt to limit their influence.
• Protect, from involuntary sequestration, individuals key to the processes of succession, and exercise of the 25th Amendment.
• Accomplish the above in the presence of possible violent civil unrest.

We cannot stop the ideations of the desperate. If these measures have already been taken with effect,  realization of our worst fears cannot occur.

Leadership in this interval  leading up to inauguration is an informal collective of very competent people, who unfortunately lack the statutory authority on which all notions of deterrence rest.

The situation persists because  the risk of domestic unrest is more real to the politically astute than the risk of hostile foreign powers.

A hostile foreign power might be emboldened to shortly take a risk we would normally call a miscalculation.  Their numbers might actually add up.

The remedy to risk from hostile foreign powers is to reestablish the statutory authority that is the basis all forms deterrence, as provided for by the Constitution.

It’s much cheaper than fighting a war.

(CNN) Top White House national security officials are considering resigning.  Quoting,

Several of President Trump’s top aides, including national security adviser Robert O’Brien, are considering resigning in the wake of his response to a pro-Trump mob breaching the US Capitol today.

This is addressed to those officials. Please don’t resign. We need you more than ever.

This is a day which will live in infamy, but not yours. The  minor shame of serving to the end is erased by the service you have rendered. The numbers of experienced professionals like yourselves, who stepped up for the most difficult jobs of their lives, is the most impressive fact of this administration.  You have together borne the shield of decency and preserved the Constitution.

On 12/21, I began to wonder: Coup in the United States? In May of 1964, this almost happened… It may yet emerge as more real than mere ambition, prevented by one insuperable obstacle, YOU.

You, as interlocutors with the rest of  government, were the barrier to illegalities of usurpation. You defended the Constitution and preserved the Republic.  This remains your obligation  and reward until Inauguration Day, unless the 25th Amendment is invoked.

Even if history does not shower you with the praise of the victorious, if you stay the course of the Republic, this will be your finest hour.

So there’s no misunderstanding, I would drive three hours to get either shot. But there is a strong argument for a half dose.

(Reuters) Mexican doctor hospitalized after receiving COVID-19 vaccine is concerning. Quoting,

“The initial diagnosis is encephalomyelitis,” the Health Ministry said in a statement released on Friday night. Encephalomyelitis is an inflammation of the brain and spinal cord.

Encephalomyelitis does not result from atopy. It is a result of a cell-mediated autoimmune reaction. In the few 3rd World countries that still use the Semple rabies vaccine, it is a regular and frequently lethal side effect. Brain damage is frequent in survivors.

The Semple vaccine is made of animal nerve tissue with no purification. When encephalomyelitis results from this vaccine, it is the result of introducing into the body proteins which are both similar and different. The foreignness of the protein induces an immune response that also attacks native proteins. But this mechanism gives no hint as to why it would occur with an RNA vaccine.

A clue is offered by (Nature, 12/20/2020) The S1 protein of SARS-CoV-2 crosses the blood–brain barrier in mice. For a neat summary, see (ScienceDaily) COVID-19 virus enters the brain, research strongly suggests.

The Mexican physician has a history of severe allergic reactions. How could this tie in with encephalomyelitis? A possible mechanism:

• The patient had a “standard” anaphylactic reaction, which involves a huge histamine release.
• The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines cause cells at the injection site to produce a flood of spike protein, which, unbound to an adjuvant, is highly mobile.
• Since it is now known that the brain contains mast cells, the blood-brain barrier suddenly became porous. Even with prompt treatment, a substantial quantity of spike protein passed the barrier.
• With no previous exposure to spike protein, the nature of the immune response within the brain is a mystery. Encephalomyelitis could be the visible result of a massively apoptotic event.
• Had the patient  received epinephrine prophylaxis with the vaccine, this might have been avoided. Something to consider?

In traditional vaccines, adjuvants have been combined with antigen to increase the potency of the shot. Various theories explain why adjuvants work:

• The immune system requires insult to react. As a minor irritant, an adjuvant causes the immune system to respond more strongly to the antigen.
• When an antigen is attached to a poorly soluble adjuvant, such as alum, the half life of the antigen in circulation is greatly increased. This also reduces the mobility of the antigen.

As potentially toxic substances, adjuvants went out of fashion for a while, with preference for highly potent antigens synthesized by recombinant techniques. Now adjuvants are back in favor in new flavors.

RNA vaccines produce a sudden flood of unbound s-protein antigen. More traditional vaccines present antigens bound to larger structures, either adjuvants, or virus-like-particles. This reduces the mobility of the antigen, in this case s-protein, lessening the chance it can pass the blood-brain barrier. This “safety feature” cannot be incorporated into RNA vaccines.

Since this is unlikely to have a large lay readership, we could finish with Paracelsus. You know what he said. Even a handful of cases of encephalomyelitis could frustrate mass immunization.

So cut the dose in half. Yes, I’m still driving three hours for the shot. I’ll take mine with a side of epinephrine.

(click to enlarge)

I’m too much of a realist to revel in a single day, and wish you a happy new year. From (Shakespeare) Richard III,

The oil-on-canvas painting is inspired by a  shack in southern New Mexico, where I saw orange desert lighting, bolts spanning the entire sky.  It was made in an unusual way.  Mars Black mixed with heavy medium was applied in heavy impasto. The line drawing was inscribed with a stick. It was set aside to dry for a month.  All of the colors and shades are the result of thin glazes. Lit straight on, the canvas appears inscrutably dark. The photo was taken with side lighting.

Look!  In the window of the shack! Is that glow the lamp of a solitary dweller, a beacon of hope, or just the reflection of lightning?

Your choice, the freedom of imagination.

(Reuters) AstraZeneca vaccine not ready for quick European approval, watchdog official says.

I agree. I said as much on August 24, before the first neurological complications were reported, in Why I Would Not Take the Russian or Oxford – AstraZeneca Vaccines – Part 2.

A plausible mechanism is given in (CNN) NIH ‘very concerned’ about serious side effect in AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine trial.

(CNN) ‘This vehicle will explode in 15 minutes.’ Witnesses describe surviving the Nashville explosion.

The forensics so far released permits some comments about the device, followed with attempted profile of the perpetrator(s).

DEVICE

The damage is much less than expected,  inconsistent with the size and effect of a typical vehicle IED. The lack of total wall collapse of adjacent buildings is indicative of a much smaller device than a camper could  carry. It was either intentionally under-powered, or a fizzle. Since  there is no mention of nails or ball bearings as lethality enhancers,  lethality was not maximized. This fits well with an intentionally small device.

Since ANFO, ammonium nitrate/fuel oil, is the almost universal choice for car bombs, as well as the leading industrial explosive, a bomber’s illegal contacts would have to be very unusual to choose something else.

The color of the smoke is usually a clue to the type of explosive. In this case, the black smoke is likely an indication of a bomb maker’s error, or intentional sloppiness. Gross simplification: Almost all explosives, with the notable exception of TATP, contain all four of nitrogen, oxygen, carbon, and hydrogen.

• Nitrogen oxides tend to make orange smoke.
• Water, from hydrogen and oxygen, white smoke.
• Carbon, black smoke.

Which color you see depends upon which of the above is dominant. An optimal ANFO bomb produces orange smoke.

• An excess of fuel oil,  more than the optimal 6%, results in black smoke from the carbon in the oil.
• An attempt  to “boost” the IED by surrounding it with fuel oil in some dispersal scheme, perhaps for a fuel-air effect, could result in black smoke.
• If the bomb maker was environmentally minded, he might have mixed in PPC (Pittsburgh Pulverized Coal), to suppress toxic nitrogen oxides, with black smoke resulting.

PERPETRATOR PROFILE

An AT&T switching center is adjacent to the blast site. The choice of targets have been suggested as police, infrastructure, or a combination, where police would be drawn to respond by risk to infrastructure.

Goals of maximum loss of life or widespread emotional impact are not supported. The 15 minute countdown recording suggests a conscience more conditional than we have come to associate with Islamic terror. Since impact was actually minimized by the recorded warning,  it is unlikely to have links to Islamic terrorism.

• The absence of a social media footprint suggests higher intelligence than typical of recent right-wing extremism.
• The possible human remains are consistent with a suicide attack.
• There has been no claim of responsibility.  A lone wolf is possible. 

If the perpetrator has ideological motivation, it may derive from

• Anarchism of the late 19th and early 20th century.
• Anti-fascism, as typified by the Weather Underground of 1969-1977, and the first and second wave Red Brigades of 1970-1988.
• The nascent potential for similar terror in the current Antifa movement.

Neo-naziism and Antifa are not simply polar opposites. The extreme right wing in the U.S., and probably elsewhere, is intellectually challenged. The further right we go, the dumber they get, eventually aligning with significant mental impairment.  This broad grouping is almost incapable of ideating  anything more sophisticated than the use of violence to incite more of the same. Notorious acts, such as the Oklahoma City bombing,  have caused unselective loss of life.

We don’t have to love left-wing or anarchic radicals more than the right to acknowledge that the radical left, and the classical anarchists, think because they can. The intelligence of the modern Antifa  grouping encourages elaborate ideations, typically actions of surgical scope.  The Nashville bombing has, by design, noticeably limited scope.

The likely political sympathy is left.  Whether it converts to political group association depends upon investigation. At best, this is a lone-wolf suicide. At worst, another Unabomber,  difficult  because of the intelligence of the perpetrator.

If Antifa is involved, publicity is key to the goal, and key also to the investigation.