(CNN) Telescope with world’s largest digital camera will be a ‘game-changer’ for astronomy. Quoting,

Under construction since 2015, the telescope is named after pioneering American astronomer Vera Rubin, who died in 2016 and, among other achievements, first confirmed the existence of dark matter — the elusive substance that constitutes the majority of the matter in the universe, but has never been observed.

Big error! The existence of dark matter is unproven. Competition includes a variety of theories collectively referred to as modified gravity. Vera Rubin herself did not exclude alternative explanations;  neither she nor the theoreticians who followed have, to this day, been able to determine what dark matter is made of — if it exists at all.

Rubin  did not confirm  the existence of dark matter. She was what we call an experimentalist, the first to systematically observe that galaxies rotate faster than predicted according to Einstein’s theory of general relativity. Preceded by Fritz Zwicky, it naturally occurred to her that missing, invisible mass might be responsible. But while Einstein’s theory is well tested on the scale of the solar system, benchmarks are lacking that would enable testing on galactic scale. Alternatives remain viable.

The article contains these errors of fact, procedure, and philosophy:

• Conflation of popularity of a theory with scientific truth.
• Failure to consult diverse sources.
• Failure to acknowledge the essential role of skepticism in scientific inquiry.

What’s left? The story of a new scientific instrument, named after a woman who spent her life seeking elusive truth. To honor her, honor the quality of her mind.

See Bad news for dark matter: This data doesn’t fit at all, for an explanation of one aspect of the controversy by one of my favorite YouTubers, Sabine Hossenfelder.

At least it’s not as bad as this: Sloppy CNN; Earth’s core has slowed so much it’s moving backward, scientists confirm. Here’s what it could mean.

(Axios) Pro-Iranian account leaks alleged U.S. intel on Israel’s attack plans. Quoting,

The alleged report details measures that have been carried out in recent days at several Israeli Air Force bases, including the transfer of advanced munitions which, according to the report, were intended for an attack on Iran.

Superstrength concrete was developed in the U.S. in the early       1960’s for construction of missile silos.  Various additives, such as polymers and quartz can produce a concrete many times stronger than the basic mix of lime and aggregate. The most basic additive is plastic; many other additives, such as carbon fiber, can be included. See polymer concrete.

Some estimates suggest that Iran has continued development of this material, and now has the most advanced concrete technology in the world. This poses an issue for U.S. non-nuclear bunker-buster munitions; some estimates put Iran’s nuclear facilities beyond the range of bunker-busters, due to a combination of mountainous overburden and superstrength concrete.

Bunker-busters are old technology. Even the rocket-accelerated kind, designed for carriage on tactical aircraft, descends from British bombs developed in World War II. But there is some suggestion that within the past decade, some programs in this area have gone black.

Quoting from (CNN) Leaked documents show US intelligence on Israel’s plans to attack Iran, sources say ,

Another US official said that “these two documents are bad, but not horrible. The concern is if there are more.”

Knowledge of what Iranian structures are vulnerable to U.S. conventional bunker busters, some of which may be in black development, is critical indeed.

It appears this information was leaked, not sold. The risk of leaks is greatest when there is associated moral ambiguity. While there is little ambiguity of public opinion towards Iran, public opinion displays a significant Gaza dissonance. A skilled operator driven by conscience is very hard to catch.

(CNN) Plans to execute Robert Roberson paused after judge approves restraining order just 90 minutes before his scheduled execution.

In the U.S., a person can be convicted and executed for murder via circumstantial evidence — without witnesses to the crime. The quality of this form of evidence can vary widely.

The uniqueness of fingerprints has been claimed to be as high as one in  64 billion. This has come into judicial  question with the observation that there is no uniquely established way to compare them.  It depends upon the expert. Nevertheless, if we divide the uniqueness by an arbitrary million, we get 64,000, still useful as circumstantial evidence.

DNA, another form of circumstantial evidence, also relies on experts. As with fingerprints, admissibility was established by common  law precedent.  The human genetic code is more unique than fingerprints, which are actually determined by DNA. Alas, DNA has a drawback. The molecule is extremely stable, resistant to sterilization methods for pathogens. Unlike fingerprints, DNA can travel, contaminating objects distant from the source. Hence, labs use disposable plastic containers and tools. Improper collection techniques can implicate the innocent.

Despite the debates, which center around one-in-a-million versus one-in-a-billion, these are reliable, well studied tools, which obey the law of large numbers. The shortcomings are largely removed by the judicial process. What remains would be worrisome in  isolation.

Fortunately, the justice system does not rely exclusively on technical methods. The  gold standard is the testimony of witnesses. It is frequently supplemented by other forms of circumstantial evidence. These include expert testimony, which encapsulates technical expertise that, unlike fingerprints and DNA, have not been validated as standard tools.

Robert Roberson was convicted of shaking his child, causing her death. The conviction relied on  expert testimony that the injuries were caused by shaking, not by a fall from a bed. Expert testimony which is not validated by the law of large numbers is frequently contradicted by other experts, with spectacle in the courtroom.

It satisfied the jury. Should it? If the testimony of experts were validated in the same way as fingerprints and DNA, you would have to shake 64,000 babies, and drop another 64,000. The question before all of Texas is not whether it is likely Roberson is guilty. It is whether he is guilty “beyond reasonable doubt.”

Neither is it about the correctness of judicial procedure. By gun or by needle, Texas is cavalier about human life. Let the justice who believes justice has been served throw the switch.

(CNN) Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar killed in Gaza, Israel confirms.

An evil man has died. We allow ourselves a brief celebration. Then we realize this is not a case of Ding Dong The Witch is Dead. It resembles the killing of Soleimani. See Solemani Killing Makes no Difference; Politics Muddys; Remember Pearl Harbor.

Iraq after Saddam Hussein is  suggestive of future politics.  Despite the comparatively moderate damage of the war, and the enlightened governance of the Coalition Provisional Authority, there ensued an insurgency powered by extreme cultural disaffection of some elements, which could not be contained by the desire of the majority for peaceful reconstruction.

Israel lacks even the limited good will extended to the Coalition Provisional Authority. Israel can rule Gaza, but it cannot establish civil government there. Since the damage to life and property is similar to post-war Nazi Germany, where reconciliation was successful, it is reasonable to ask why this is an obstacle. The answer: it isn’t. The real obstacle is cultural friction of different religious mythologies.

The only group that has a chance with Gaza is Fatah, which governed it until 2006, when it was kicked out after the 2006 Palestinian legislative election, and a small subsequent war. Having been kicked out by Gazans as a corrupt and sclerotic organization, it is doubtful they would be welcomed back. For Netanyahu, it would be a step towards the unwanted two-state solution.

If Fatah were to come  in without strong popular support, it would  be eaten from the inside by what remains of Hamas, who would use it as cover. The elimination of Hamas leaders is no obstacle. The field of hate has been manured and plowed.

The script of this counterfactual history is easy to write, because it has been used so many times.  Give yourself some restful minutes with this, before reality intrudes:

***Ding Dong The Witch is Dead. ***

(click to enlarge)

(CNN) Male artists ‘peak in their 40s,’ Tracey Emin says. Quoting,

Renowned British artist Tracey Emin has said that many male artists, like her contemporary Damien Hirst, “peak in their 40s,” whereas women retain their creative force as they age. … “Women have the capability of doing that (carrying on) as long as they’re given the opportunity to do it,”…

Bosh! Picasso painted till  2 a.m. the night before he died, at age 91, in 1973. Dali was not so lucky, as he became physically impaired years before he passed. Luck of the draw, not sex, though some women artists, such as Helen Frankenthaler and Agnes Martin, were notably introverts. If there is a psychic connection, introversion may signal more reserves to carry on than  the  extroversion required of shock performance art. Perhaps Hirst is tired of shocking himself, and is overdue for reinvention.

Ms. Emin, you hopefully have the reserves of introversion. As for myself, I am in my prime, where I intend to remain by periodic reinvention.

Blue Rain. 48×36″, acrylic ink and paint, oil, and charcoal on canvas. The companion piece, Violet Rain, can be found at Hunter Biden’s Art.

As stated in (CNN) ‘That son of a bitch’: New Woodward book reveals candid behind-the-scenes conversations of Biden, Trump, Harris and Putin. Quoting,

The book also contains new details about Trump’s relationship with the Russian president. In 2020, Woodward writes, Trump had “secretly sent Putin a bunch of Abbott Point of Care Covid test machines for his personal use.”

Much has been made of Putin’s extreme fear of infectious disease exposure. He is frequently pictured at one end of his elongated white conference table, his guest at the other, which is the subject of much black humor. Putin is not a neurotic germophobe. The  reason is entirely logical.

Putin has cancer. Since there is no evidence of surgical intervention for a solid tumor it is probably a blood cancer. Blood cancers result in immunosuppression, as a result of both  chemotherapy, and the disease itself, which results in overproduction of nonfunctional, defective white blood cells. The exact species of cell depends upon the particulars of the disease. Quoting from Is Putin Seriously Ill?,,

The absence of facial inflammation suggests the swelling is the side effect of a glucocorticoid  drug, typically prednisone, which induces a well-known suite of side effects known as Cushing’s syndrome. The “moon face” is a hallmark sign, which may be disguised in photography with the absence of frontal views.

Prednisone is a powerful immunosuppressant. Putin may be receiving other chemotheraputic agents as well. All of the small-molecule drugs are powerful immunosuppressants. The result of exposure to COVID could easily be death.

Putin’s use of body doubles, which has been ridiculed as fantasy, is essential to his survival. When he is photographed wading into a crowd without speaking, that is not him.

(CNN) See the treacherous area where rescuers are trying to save survivors comments on the difficulty rescuers have communicating with each other, caused by the destruction of cellular infrastructure.

FEMA relies on First Responder Network Authority (FirstNet), a specialized cellular system, which is hosted by AT&T. So when AT&T cells went down in Asheville, FirstNet went down too.

In a relatively flat region, there would have been a solution. Since Firstnet occupies the low frequency 4G LTE Band 14 (700 MHz), a single portable cell tower can cover a wide area. Not so in Appalachia, where  cell towers have to be carefully  placed to obtain even mediocre coverage.

There is a practical  industry approach to temporary erection of tall antenna structures – the tethered balloon. Even in Appalachia, at a height of 1500 to 3000 feet, a single balloon cell “tower” could offer substantial coverage, perhaps as much as 30% of normal.

The prerequisites:

• Pre-cleared mountain-top helicopter landing pad.
• Pre-constructed anchor point for the tether.
• Cell electronics mounted on a balloon, packaged for helo deployment.
• Diesel generator.
• Provision of backhaul link.
• Firmware integration into FirstNet.

FEMA, get cracking. This is not a very expensive proposition.

If I knew the beans, I wouldn’t spill them. Here are some questions that might be asked of a candidate target:

People: Leadership or military?

Civilian infrastructure, or war making potential?

Essential utility, long lead-time replacement, or status symbol?

More valuable as a hostage to destruction than destroyed?

If the above is the case, can it be nibbled at, to reinforce the threat?

An attritable resource, or a unitary one-off?

Is there a psychological target?  Leadership,  public, or some specific element?

If the psychological target is the leadership, should the physical target be something inconspicuous to the public, thus allowing the leadership to conceal the loss from their base?

Or conversely, embarrass the leadership to their domestic base? Is Iran a candidate for this?

A neat trick:  Retaliation that negates the logic of tit-for-tat.

(CNN) Iranian Mission to the UN: Tehran’s response “has been duly carried out” Quoting,

The Iranian Mission to the United Nations said Tuesday afternoon that Tehran’s response has “been duly carried out,” following a barrage of missiles launched at Israel.

…

There were no injuries following Iran’s attack on Israel on Tuesday, Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari has said.

In Iran’s Options for Retaliation, I wrote:

• Retaliation comes in two basic varieties, attributable to Iran, and deniable.
• The scope of attributable is limited by the cost of inevitable retaliation. As an example of the risks, Israel could easily destroy Kharg Island.

The prediction of limited retaliation, well within the capabilities of Israeli air defense, has been provisionally validated.

There is a respectable, if sarcastically expressed, opinion that Israel created Hezbollah. This is not literally true — Iran did, but Israel’s involvement was essential. Please suspend your outrage while  I explain.

In the 70’s and 80’s, Lebanon was the main base of the PLO. The PLO, like the vast majority of Palestinians, is Sunni. This period of Lebanon’s history resembles the period of Cabinet Wars in Europe. The character of these wars :

• Aristocratic origin, with modern translation to “warlord.”
• Limited scope.
• Fought by mercenaries.
• Little involvement by the actual inhabitants.
• Varied impact on the inhabitants, from scarcely noticeable to massive collateral casualties, as in the 30 Years War.

In Lebanon, then as now, one might have no stake in  a conflict, yet pay with their life. So it was in the early 80’s. Lebanon’s Shiites now compose about half of the Muslim majority, but they were less numerous then. An underclass of predominantly Sunni Palestine, the largest block of contiguous Shiite territory is in the south, adjacent to Israel. At this time, Maronites had disproportionate representation in parliament, while actual power was slipping away to the PLO. Conflict in and around the massive refugee camps was fomented by numerous smaller groups, for whom the disenfranchised were sources of manpower — men with guns.

Maronite Phalangists, the PLO, and the smaller groups comprised the typical warlord mix. The PLO attacked Israel from this region. The Maronites sought to project power that was still institutionally theirs. The Shiites, isolated by religion from Gulf Arab support, remained mostly passive, until 1982, when Israel invaded Lebanon.

The goal was to weaken the PLO and prop up the Maronites. The Israeli Army  fought in Shiite territory, where they remained active for some years. Heavy collateral damage resulted. The Shiites were not the target, but they suffered. This was Iran’s opening. What the Gulf Arabs would not give to Shiites, they would give. The training and organization was the best that the IRG , fresh from their own revolution, could provide.

Hezbollah is more than a geopolitical expression of Iran’s ambition. To Iran, home of hyperbolic Persian poetry, it is a candidate for spiritual myth, supporting the overarching  myth of Iran as a revolutionary theocracy, enshrined in Iran’s constitution, celebrated annually  with the great emotion, in heroic retelling of the martyrdom of Imam Ali.

Iran is also a country of institutionalized hypocrisy and extreme corruption. It is a developed nation, with a restive population, vulnerable infrastructure, and an extreme water shortage. The myth demands servicing, but the cost must be reasonable.

• Retaliation comes in two basic varieties, attributable to Iran, and deniable.
• The scope of attributable is limited by the cost of inevitable retaliation. As an example of the risks, Israel could easily destroy Kharg Island.
• Deniable has two forms, covert, where the forensics is hidden, and by proxy, where  the will to act can not be traced to Iran.
• The history of the subject shows that retaliation by proxy, which denies the victim easy justification in the international court of opinion, has the lowest risk.
• A low risk strategy is  to rebuild Hezbollah, supporting the myth of the revolutionary state while achieving deniable retaliation. It would re justify the IRG, a major source of corruption, to themselves, and to the  Iranian state. Never underestimate the need for self-justification.

Since 9/11, we have seen varying success in the reduction of terrorist organizations. Trans-national  Al-Qaeda has not regained its former prominence. ISIS maintains a weed-like vitality. Hamas, concentrated in a small geographic area, is under severe pressure, but may regenerate from indigenous support. Organizations with concentrated resources and low manpower have been successfully degraded. Organizations with a more  indigenous character, with more manpower than resources, have been resistant with the character of insurgency. The resurgence of ISIS in Iraq is an example.

In fractured Lebanon, Hezbollah began as a resistance movement, but in less than a decade assumed the character of a second government. Concentrated resources, with highly centralized command and control are the source of its singular reputation as the most powerful terror organization.  These aspects are most subject to degradation by concerted Israeli action.

Manpower, the indigenous connection of Hezbollah to ethnicity in Lebanon, is not so vulnerable. While Iran cannot, at least in the mid-term, reconstitute Hezbollah with all the power of a second government, it can support a lightweight, manpower based group well prepared for guerrilla action with occasional heavy weapons in the mix.

A prolonged ground action by Israel would come to resemble counter-insurgency. This event forced Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000.

The leaders and  senior politicians of Israel have all lived through  the unsuccessful attempt to influence Lebanon’s trajectory, to deny terror a sanctuary in Lebanon by skilled military intervention. Despite calls to “finish off Hezbollah”, their inner thoughts must span a range, from doubt of the achievable to realistic buying of time, time of relative security. When the enemy has 200,000 missiles, you have to do something.

Perhaps time is all you can buy in the Eternal City._*

*Jerusalem is older than Rome.