The evolution of this nascent conflict is a little odd. Though in decline, classical war is preceded by the development of pretext, with complaints that may be true though frequently false, followed by negotiations that seek to convince some audience of the reasonableness of the plaintiff, followed or accompanied by mobilization, and finally, the  casus belli that leads directly to hostilities.

This time, Clausewitz does a headstand: Politics is nothing but the continuation of war with other means, at least now, with Venezuela. (For reference, Clausewitz actually wrote (Springer  Nature Link) War is nothing but the continuation of policy with other means’ (Clausewitz, 1993:77).

What some might have hoped would be a splendid little war looks now more like an old fashioned election, with the likker and money flowing freely. Trump wants to buy out the Bolivarian generals, but as they have been bought by the cartels, they have to be bought again. And as the cartels may actually have greater resources for that kind of disbursement than the  CIA,  So the Trump team’s offer must be two-edged, and one that they can’t refuse: Take a few million with a clear path to a pardon, or a one-way bus ticket to CECOT or Supermax.

This is likely why the (NBC) pardoning of former Honduras President Juan Orlando Hernández  has a specific audience,  as does the show of military hardware. Meanwhile, Maduro vanished for a while, probably on an old-fashioned stump tour for the same constituency.

With the scrutiny of Senate and House Armed Services committees of the “double-tap” boat strike, and the absence of actual U.S. mobilization, Maduro  senses weakness. This highlights an ageless truth about bluffing. The little guy can get away with it, unless the big guy has an institutionalized appetite for war. Still, we cannot discount the possibility that he will wake up with a horse in his bed.

Does Maduro breed horses?

***An offer he can’t refuse***