As this is written, the oil storage facilities of Oman’s Salalah Port Oil Facility are ablaze. It might seem a strange moment to commend the value of Salalah as a Hormuz alternative, but we take the long view.
The military infrastructure and industrial base of Iran can be ground down to millimeters. Their weapons stockpiles can be diminished to near zero. Yet in the absence of profound political change, the tiny residuum is enough to obstruct Hormuz.
The reason is sheer geography. Mountains bordering the water, or separated by a narrow coastal plain, offer copious cover for small units with modern weapons. While formerly, massive emplacements were required, modern missile replacements are much smaller, and highly portable, even multi-man-portable, or by mules. The cover is so effective, Iran can mine the strait in the near proximity of maximal U.S. naval forces. It is not feasible to deploy naval assets close to or in the strait because the exchange costs are extremely unfavorable.
In the coming months, with Ukrainian help for drone defense, the direct threat to the Gulf states will diminish to almost zero. The strait will remain blocked. Who capitulates first will depend on not only their immediate condition, but also the prospects of improvement. While Iran has no prospects save U.S./ Gulf capitulation, we have more options.
The solution, which by urgency is no longer long term, is massive expansion of overland pipelines, and construction of entirely new ones. Parts of the project can begin almost immediately. Ground preparation and laying of pipeline do not offer concentrated, high value targets. Pumping stations have Intermediate risk. The final steps of terminal construction and loading facilities are delayed until Iranian capabilities become minimal.
The effect of new pipelines on Iranian evolution cannot be overstated. With time on our side, and Iranian lack of means to pay their minions, their system will decay. Time will finish what precision munitions cannot touch.
How long would it take? When Germany constructed a massive LNG terminal/complex in months, one wag said the pace seemed Chinese.
Think Manhattan Project; think Chinese. Just get it done.