…data in recent weeks on new variants from South Africa and Brazil has undercut that optimism. They now believe that SARS-CoV-2 will not only remain with us as an endemic virus, continuing to circulate in communities, but will likely cause a significant burden of illness and death for years to come.
Murray’s thoughts align with mine. Quoting from Misplaced Hopes for COVID Herd Immunity; Napkin Calculation,
With anticipation of widespread SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 and other mutations, the factor of 1/2 could imply we are currently, not at 40%, but 20% immunity. … The implies herd immunity in November/December, not August….This is possible, not factual, if COVID doesn’t have more tricks up its sleeve. It takes influenza A about 25 years to cycle through its range of antigen permutations.
Even with the not-quite promise of herd immunity, COVID-19 is likely to remain a nasty, prevalent disease, sparing only those with lucky genes, and those who are exposed as children.
Contrast with (CNN) US could reach herd immunity by summer through vaccinations alone, CNN analysis finds. Quoting,
But experts generally agree that somewhere between 70% and 85% of the population must be protected to suppress the spread, a range that Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has recently cited.
- Which argument has the most visible logic?
- Which article asserts a consensus of experts?
- Of the two predictions, how many supporters? How many dissenters?
- Which article cites an authority figure for support?
- Which article lays claim to authority as an argument in itself? Hint: Look at the title.
- Which articles emphasize COVID variants? Which mentions in a minor closing remark?
Your comparison could be completely subjective, in which case, ask yourself, “What kind of a thinker am I?” Or you could apply (Decision Science News) Benjamin Franklin’s rule for decision making.
What do you come up with? You could just “pass”, but it’s a good exercise.