Bloomberg: Trump Team Aims to Test Russia’s Alliance With Iran. The most provocative statement comes up front:
As the Trump administration begins planning its outreach to Moscow, one question for the new president will be whether he can persuade Russia to turn away from Iran.
This is then restated with slight moderation,
“…they will explore the extent to which Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to end this relationship and cooperate with U.S. policy to counter Iranian aggression in Syria and the Middle East. ”
and then with the tentativeness of realism:
“It’s important to find out what are the limits of Russia’s willingness to cooperate with us with regard to Iran,” said Michael Ledeen, who during the transition served as an adviser to Michael Flynn…”
These are lot of words to fuzz the issue. Does Flynn really imagine a breakup is possible, or is it an opening gambit? Some of the best reporting comes from Al-Monitor’s Hamidrez Azizi, an Iranian. In Why are Syrian rebels stepping up efforts to isolate Iran?, he writes
That this kind of reporting could come out of Tehran is a remarkable illustration of the dichotomy of Iran’s politics, dominated by the sometimes visible, sometimes hidden hand of the Qom establishment. With another shift, the writer could be imprisoned.
Let’s pose a question, of the type that might have appeared on the website of the IARPA “Forecasting World Events” crowd sourcing project:
“Will Trump’s administration succeed in convincing Russia to break with Iran?”
As a crowd sourcing question, the question by itself is not enough. Rigorous, reportable, decidable criteria for a “yes” must accompany it, such as:
“If any of the following occur, as reported by recognized media, by such-and-such a date:”
- A rupture of diplomatic relations.
- Hostilities between Russia and Iran.
- Restriction of arms supply by Russia to Iran. This includes an ambiguity: sales or deliveries?
- A vote by Russia in the P5+1 framework against Iran.
My prediction would be “no.”
To be continued shortly.