Prediction. The Manhattan DA’s Trump felony charge will go to the jury.
The devil is in the details, of translating a noun, “supremacy” of the Supremacy Clause, to a verb, “preempt”, with the adverbs “broadly” or “narrowly.”
While the Federal Election Commission claims broad preemption, the actual case law favors the prosecution.
Was this an act of domestic resistance, or Ukrainian? Opinions vary. There isn’t enough evidence to distinguish, while Russian propagandists spin fictions to serve the state.
One constant should be considered in every argument. In 2015, several rebel commanders were likely assassinated by the Kremlin. See Rebel Commander Aleksey Mozgovoy Killed in East Ukraine, Frozen Conflict?
This option is no longer directly available. If the Kremlin desired to use the state security apparatus to neutralize a Tatarsky, Dugin, Girkin, or Prigozhin, they couldn’t do it:
Implication. If the Kremlin eliminated Tatarsky, proxies were employed. With traditional Russian skills of subversion and infiltration, proxies could even be obtained from anti-war groups. The Russian political cycle up to 1953 has numerous examples of the use of one faction or creche used to destroy another, followed by its own destruction.
The prototype is the killing of Sergey Kirov, discussed in Juan Guaido Watch Your Back; Trump says ‘Russia has to get out’ of Venezuela Part 2.
Coincidentally, Kirov was killed in Saint Petersburg.
Punditry will shortly observe that the indictments make Trump virtually unelectable. Already anathema to independents, he becomes doubly anathema. If Biden adopts a tough immigration policy, he may even peel off a few liberal Republicans.
New York is one of the few remaining states that use grand juries to return indictments. This makes it hard to blame the event on prosecutorial whimsy.
Republican messaging will be difficult:
Perhaps it’s time to build that Trump Tower Moscow. I hear Ed Snowden is looking for some altitude with attitude.
(CNN) The latest on the Nashville elementary school shooting.
In Highland Park Shooting; I had a Bad Feeling the Night Before, I wrote,
I had a bad feeling the night before. It wasn’t clairvoyance, insight, or prediction. In another time, it would be misplaced neuroticism. Now, strangely appropriate. A mind-virus, a meme, afflicts vulnerable young males, incubating in near silence like the rabies virus, fulminating to a state of calculated rage.
In Facebook, I wrote,
We begin with reality of the group mind, not as the helpful superintelligence of (Wikipedia) collective consciousness, but of the atavistic human, the crowd run amok, the groupthink of hatred, of awakening the Beast in Five Million Years to Earth.…Facebook is a distributed computing entity with biologic and nonbiologic elements.
Facebook is a cyborg. Long anticipated by science fiction, the dystopian future has arrived. Scores of movies had us choking on popcorn. Now that the rising waters of a dystopian future are soaking the carpet, our responses are loudly indignant, ineffectual, and trivial in comparison with the threat.
There is the mistaken confidence that as sentient, living beings, we cannot be seriously challenged by social media, “computer programs”, AI or otherwise, or combinations of ourselves with such entities. Crucially, we assume democracy will continue to thrive.
Though “mind virus” may seem a literary trope, Audrey Hale, murderer, was infected by such a virus. His access to guns enabled the deed, but the idea of murder with a gun was the proximal cause. This mind virus hijacked his free will, and disarmed his antibodies of social conscience. The disease vector, the entity which transmitted the virus to a new host, was social media.
The mind virus challenges the uniqueness of a package of DNA or RNA which infects cells of a carbon based life form with malicious instructions. The definition of life itself expands. Quoting (Wikipedia) Life,
Alternative definitions based on the notion of life as a phenomenon and a living individual have been proposed as continuum of a self-maintainable information, and a distinct element of this continuum, respectively. A major strength of this approach is that it defines life in terms of mathematics and physics, avoiding biological vocabulary…
This is also a description of immaterial life. Computer viruses approach life as closely as nucleic acid viruses, which is to say, not quite. Both require physical systems to infect; living organisms or machines. The next morph is an immaterial virus that infects a victim verging on immateriality: the mind.
Though Audrey Hale was under the care of mental health professionals, mind viruses are resistant to treatment. Malaria and yellow fever are hard to treat; eradication of the disease vectors — mosquitoes, is paramount. A crucial difference with social media: No one advocates for mosquitoes.
Responses to mass shootings deplore the events, while failing to acknowledge the interconnections between events. “This has to stop” sounds like an argument; there is no arguing with a virus. Statisticians will discover that in the overwhelming majority of shootings, mass media is accessory to the crime. In the minority which are not, indirect connection is likely. No one schemes in a vacuum. Social media is killing people.
Unlike the nearly impossible eradication of mosquitoes, the social media disease vector can be mitigated by statute. Political will is absent. A very old saying predicts a dire future:
(CNN) Putin says Russia plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus.
For close similarity, see Russia to use Dirty Bombs in Ukraine?
Xi’s nuclear admonition may have been deprecated consequent to the lack of material support from China.
A warning to Vladimir Putin: What goes around comes around. See
Note to China re Russia; Dmitry Medvedev Threatens to Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine.
The past lives on in each of us, in what is known as culture. One such element, autocracy, had only occasional challenge until revolutions of 1848. Vladimir Putin, in collaboration with the Russian Orthodox Church, has latched onto the divine right of kings.
With the demise of Communism in China except in name, elements of Confucianism fill the ideological gap: good government, social harmony, work ethic, and respect for authority. Confucianism is not a religion; it is a system of thought with some vague religious elements, such as Tian, 天 – Heaven. This is Xi Jinping’s own cultural heritage from China’s past: a system of thought incomparably advanced compared to most Western manifestations, predating modern, that followed the Golden Age of Greece.
We oppose authoritarian systems. Yet it is important for us to realize that they come in many grades of quality. Some provide good government. Some start well, though they appear time limited. Some start well and end badly. Some slip into monstrosity. Confucianism, which co-evolved with autocratic dynasties, holds that a ruler is deposed when he has lost the Mandate of Heaven.
Xi was met at the airport in Moscow by the Minister of Tourism. He met with an obviously ill Putin, who used ambiguous language to reject his peace plan. Xi left early, skipping a last day of meetings. It is likely that in Xi’s cultural reference, Putin has lost the Mandate of Heaven. Accordingly, provision of military aid would go against the will of Tian. Putin’s end is so ordained.
Many in the West are surprised by the outcome of this meeting. Some may anticipate Xi will prop up Putin to prevent Russia from entering the Western orbit. We should prepare ourselves for further surprise. Xi may realize that to make an omelet, you have to break some eggs.
The immediate post Putin period will not resemble the post-Soviet breakup, which featured profound ennui. It will be hyper-charged with violence among the elites. This may spread into the masses through those in the elite with followings, or the lower echelons of the security apparatus. A Terror will follow, a prolonged process that will result in fracturing, by the efforts of local authorities to keep the Terror out. It will end in exhaustion, but without the political evolution of rapprochement with the West. That may come later.
What Xi wants is described in Reply to China’s new Foreign Minister Qin Gang; (CNN) China’s new foreign minister warns of conflict with US, defends Russia ties. It will be crucial for Xi to identify the moment to act.
At that moment, the Russian Federation’s sense of common identity will be superseded by multiple identities of small states without common purpose. The Russian nuclear deterrent will be void, except for Russia itself.
Economic unions with the Asian remains of Russian Empire will be the first steps, followed by actual abrogation of the Unequal Treaties.
(CNN) China’s new foreign minister warns of conflict with US, defends Russia ties. Quoting,
“Why does the US talk up respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity on the Ukraine issue, but does not respect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity on the issue of Taiwan? Why does the US ask China not to provide weapons to Russia while keeps selling arms to Taiwan?” Qin said.
There are two classes of reason for “not”, harms and benefits. Harms:
Benefits. In contrast to the conquest of a small rocky island full of truculent people, great benefits may accrue to China if Russia is defeated in Ukraine. It would disarm the ideological basis of Russian imperialism. A body of opinion holds that this would result in the disintegration of the multi ethnic federation into a purely Russian component surrounded by smaller states free to choose alignments.
This may happen literally or figuratively. In either case, it affords China the opportunity to extend its sphere of influence, and possibly, dominion. At a minimum, the states of central Asia would seek Chinese protection against the remnants of Russian imperialism.
Even if a formal breakup does not occur immediately, the Russian far east would be vulnerable to the strategies so successfully used by China before the 16th century to manage the barbarian tribes of central Asia, to corrupt their wills with provision of luxuries. In modern terms, the Russian Federation, away from Moscow, can be uniquely bought. This has been the bedrock of Putin’s strategy to govern the otherwise ungovernable. It worked for Putin, and it can work for you.
This is your opportunity to rectify those Unequal Treaties which are still in force with Russia. Vladivostok was ceded by by the Treaty of Airgun, forced on the Qing Dynasty in 1858. The flag of China can fly over Vladivostok. The mineral wealth of Siberia can be yours.
Unlike the small rocky island, devoid of natural resources and full of truculent people, the event of the above would raise very few complaints.
See also CNN: Trump’s biggest nightmare? China and Russia’s new friendship Part 2 and Vladimir Putin, Child of History.
(CNN) US Energy Department assesses Covid-19 likely resulted from lab leak, furthering US intel divide over virus origin. Quoting,
The Wall Street Journal first reported on the new assessment from the Department of Energy. A senior US intelligence official told the Journal that the update to the intelligence assessment was conducted in light of new intelligence, further study of academic literature and in consultation with experts outside government.
Academic literature is important, open source, and an indicator of research with escape potential. The open source community should do some digging. This is entirely separate from research at Wuhan funded by NIH, which theory disallows as a source of COVID. See (CNN) Smerconish Interview with Kate Eban; COVID WIV Lab leak #3; Baltimore Gun Has no Smoke. Quoting,
The experiments at WIV were patterned after (Baric, 2015 Naturemedicine) A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence. If this procedure was replicated at WIV, it could not produce COVID-19. If it resulted in general competence that was used in some other way, anything is possible.
So anything is possible. My opinion runs counter to the political blame game, which is gearing up to crucify China. This should be water under the bridge. See Did COVID Come From a Lab Redux? Quoting,
This is straight-up religion, Good versus Evil, bastardized for political capital, the search for the guilty, an urge to distinguish between force majeure, and negligence-by-people-who-should-know-better. There is no sharp distinction. Since punishment is out of the question, what would a guilty verdict mean?
It means we have a choice, to turn a competitor into an enemy, or let it pass. Social media is arguably responsible for the magnitude of the COVID disaster, if not the origin.
Reaction to the China spy balloon is a comic miniature of this. Let’s reserve emotional investment for fundamental issues, like human rights. Perhaps China can still appreciate the negatives of a divided world, or a world at war.
(Aljazeera) Russia again accuses Ukraine of planning ‘false flag’ attack. Quoting,
Ukraine and its allies have dismissed such accusations as cynical attempts to spread disinformation, and have accused Moscow of planning incidents itself in a bid to blame Ukraine.
Ukraine is planning to stage a nuclear incident on its territory to pin the blame on Moscow ahead of a key United Nations meeting, Russia has alleged without providing evidence.
Prior Russian assertions have not been followed by Russian use of radiological weapons. This results in opinion of the current assertion as propaganda without material consequence. This may be a grave error. We watched with concern when Russians occupied the Zaporizhzhia reactor hall, anticipating they might stage a containment breach. They did not do so, or deploy dirty bombs, for these possible reasons:
Now they are desperate. There has been ample time to salt aerial bombs with radioactive isotopes. In a tip of the hand, Belorussian pilots have been trained to drop “special weapons.” Belarus, a quasi nonbelligerent, may be a staging area, resulting from a Russian guess that a preemptive strike is less likely.
Effective against civilian populations, dirty bombs have been disparaged as military weapons. We have watched this war for a year, as it has evolved in ways unexpected by the military profession. It has forced a look at geography with heightened perception. The Dnipro river crossings are our focus. There are not many.
In countering this threat, nothing, including preemption, or provision of long range weaponry, can be excluded from consideration. Russia’s looming “air war” makes this time urgent.
This has two considerations: interception and destruction.
Interception. A U-2 intercepted the large Chinese spy balloon. Could a modified U-2 employ a weapon to destroy one? A laser is conceivable. But the concept of intercept is alien to the U-2 design, which is difficult to fly even in a deliberately planned intelligence mission. See (USAF) U-2S/TU-2S. Quoting,
…These characteristics combine to earn the U-2 a widely accepted title as the most difficult aircraft in the world to fly.
Not mentioned is that, at altitude, the U-2 flies a coffin corner as narrow as 5 knots, resulting in severe loss of maneuverability.
The classified service ceiling of the U-2 may be adequate for super-pressure balloons, easily identified by the shape, which follows geometric norms, of which the sphere is most common. Zero-pressure balloons, like the NASA “Big 60”, can easily exceed altitudes of practical airplanes. Even the Lockheed A-12 was good for a max of 95,000 feet, at a speed too fast for observation of a nearby balloon.
A short term fix. Close inspection by something like the McDonnell Douglas F-15 Streak Eagle, with high speed camera. Zoom climb is a semi ballistic maneuver that has been used for most fixed wing air-breathing altitude records, when the absolute location is unimportant. Interception would require a specialized guidance package. Kinetic destruction is conceivable, but already obsoleted by laser.
Long term, integration of interception and destruction. Integration of both functions on a commercial derivative jet, flying above the weather. Integration of:
Perhaps JSTARS, slated for the boneyard, could be adapted. Occasional use may not justify a new platform.