This blog is a means to that end.

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On March 10, 2020, I wrote How Long Will the COVID-19 Epidemic Last? Napkin Calculation. Quoting,

In  the world of this very rough estimate, the epidemic takes a downturn 65 weeks from present. It assumes  no modifications by medicine and public health, and a lot of mostly avoidable human suffering.

It was offered almost tongue in cheek, yet the errors seem to have canceled out. Were it not for the Delta variant, it might be somewhat durable. Since this is a teaching blog, it would be dishonest to claim accuracy. I claim luck instead.

It should be taken as general encouragement of napkin calculations, which have a major advantage over sophisticated modeling:

You can’t be a prisoner of a napkin.

 

Let’s have a theological discussion. Does Putin have a soul?

About Cardinal Richelieu, Kissinger wrote, “the charting genius of a new concept of centralized statecraft and foreign policy based on the balance of power.” The Texas National Security Review article is an excellent description of the first modern statement of  diplomacy, Raison d’Etat, (Reason of State) which Oxford Languages defines as “a purely political reason for action on the part of a ruler or government, especially where a departure from openness, justice, or honesty is involved.”

Richelieu was First Minister of France from 12 August 1624 – 4 December 1642. Until the 1648 Peace of Westphalia,  sovereigns such as the King of France were formally vassals of the Holy Roman Empire. Religion was the partner of diplomacy, until Richelieu. With alliances in disregard of religion, he was thought evil by those who did not accept his rationale, for the state. On his death, a luminary said, paraphrasing,

“If there is no Hell, Richelieu has lived a very good life.”

This is the ancient version of “Did he have a soul?”

Richelieu’s deviousness inherits from Machiavelli’s The Prince. With the extensive documentation of Richelieu’s diplomacy, there began a tradition that continues to the current day:

• Suspension of moral standards when in conflict with the needs of the state. (Chechnya, Syria, Ukraine.)
• Disingenuous communication.
• Alliances that serve balance of power, including states with which there is doctrinal conflict.

Talleyrand, 1797-1815, was even more devious, to the extent that the multiple regimes of France, instead of executing him, found him useful. On hearing of his death,  Austrian diplomat Metternich said, “I wonder what he means by that?”  Modern diplo-speak was flowering, not to inform, but to mislead.

Richelieu’s ghost  resurrects  in the person of Bismarck, who created modern Germany. His machinations so increased the power of Germany  that balance-of-power in Europe was destroyed, ultimately causing the Great War, World War 1.

The ghost of Richelieu, through Bismarck, was the ultimate cause of the Great War, which caused World War 2, which caused the Cold War. This is not to say that without Richelieu there would have been no war. His heritage provided the specific tripwires, fuses and explosions of record.

Among those who  consider war inevitable, Richelieu is avidly studied. His students think, if war is inevitable, at least have it on the best terms. Until the invasion of Ukraine, Europe had forgotten how to write  history in dripping blood. The disadvantage of historical anticipation is repetition.

Vladimir Putin is an intellectual man. He reads and re-reads the history and practice of diplomacy. His favorite author is undoubtedly Henry Kissinger. If you want to  know an intellectual, read the books he reads. You’ll have a deeper understanding of the man than any amount of spy-work provides.

Now back to the question of both Bush and Biden: Does Putin have a soul? The administration’s internal dialog had better be more sophisticated than that; I expect that it is. But this “soul/no-soul” label, offered to the electorate as insight, has dumbing-down dangers. Simplifying a complex individual who is himself a child of history discards available insight into Putin’s mind. This is so important to the game, Richelieu’s game, Putin’s game, our game.

So do you still think Putin’s soul is the right question, or will you put some mental muscle into it? Are handshakes and gifts central, or is the center somewhere else?

To be continued shortly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

COVID springtime is short. It’s set to end in four more days.

In (CNN) Vaccinated Americans allowed to taste freedom; Not So Fast; Napkin Calculation #2, I wrote:

When B1.351 is vanquished, other variants will compete for dominance, with each other, and with vaccine makers.  Ad infinitum.  Ground Hog Day. Is this certain?  No, but to assume otherwise is wishful thinking.

Fate is now so poised with the Delta variant. The news media are lacking an important comparison, percentage of breakthrough infection. This doesn’t give it:

Which row(s) of the table should we compare for an appropriately bracketed estimate?  Both of these:

• In an early month of 2020, with no vaccine, 9% of those with no preexisting conditions were hospitalized; a ratio of  roughly 10X infected to hospitalized.
• Including preexisting conditions, 21% were hospitalized; a ratio of  roughly 5X infected to hospitalized.

Currently, 4% of all Pfizer recipients who contract Delta, with or without qualification for preexisting health conditions, are hospitalized. This provides a napkin-calc  estimate of the protection of Pfizer against infection with the Delta strain:

A breakthrough infection percentage of between 5X and 10X the percentage of hospitalized patients, breakthrough of 20%-40%. compared to 5% for the viruses of the original Phase 3 study.

Do we call this “effective against the Delta strain?” Sure, get the shot. The shot improves the outlook for the individual.  It is not good enough to prevent another COVID catastrophe. And there is a strong pure math argument that this level of efficacy will select for an Epsilon strain with even greater breakthrough. It has the near optimal combination of opportunity-for replication, and selectivity.

The failure of the media to correctly portray this comparison verges on managing the news as opposed to reporting it. In defense, “News” might say that “Authorities” have not made the comparison. I say, dig a little, and you’ll get it.

Perhaps the media don’t want to be the killjoys. Somebody has to do it, and it’s their job. We will soon don masks again, retreating to our private amusements. Perhaps after the vaccines are adjusted with boosters, we can ditch the masks — for a while.

(CNN)  Exclusive: US assessing reported leak at Chinese nuclear power facility contains new information. Quoting,

French utility company Electrictie de France (EDF) said in a statement it has been informed of an increase concentration of “noble gases in the primary circuit” of reactor number one of the Taishan nuclear power plant.

The noble gases produced are radioactive:

• Xenon-135, which has a short half life, affects reactor operation, but is not a significant health hazard.
• Krypton-85,  with a half life of 11 years, is a health hazard.

These gases accumulate in fuel rods, where they limit  fuel rod lifetime. The outer structure of a fuel rod is zircaloy, a mechanically tough alloy of zirconium. An inner liner of softer, pure zirconium reduces gas leakage.

Accumulation of these gases in the primary loop implies a problem with the zircaloy cladding , which is usually caused by bad welding. ANT International has published Welding of Zirconium Alloys.The first chapter is a very dense 47 pages. Quoting a couple paragraphs cannot portray the complexity of this exacting metallurgy. I’ll quote a little anyway:

2. Cleaning of weld joints and adjacent areas prior to welding. Contamination can lead to welds with poor strength and or poor corrosion resistance.

3. Atmosphere control during many of the zirconium welding processes must be strictly controlled to keep uptake of especially nitrogen and to a lesser extent oxygen at very low levels. In reactor corrosion resistance can be impaired when these gases enter the weld.

Incidents of bad China metallurgy have come to light more than in the West. Russia and Ukraine have a tradition of good metallurgy,  which has not yet become the norm in China. (Sacramento Bee) Troubled welds on the Bay Bridge: How a Chinese builder’s flaws left structural doubts and cost taxpayers.

Noble gases in the primary loop  indicates corrosion of fuel rods. Framatome assesses imminent containment failure; the U.S. estimate is “not yet.” What accounts for the divergence?

It comes down to the trajectory, and the failure mechanism:

• Gas escapes from porous welds; not so bad, but auguring worse.
• Severe corrosion  resulting in pinholes, much worse.
• Water enters a fuel rod. Fresh fuel,  uranium dioxide, is nonreactive. The decay products, which are much more radioactive than the fuel itself, leach into the primary water loop. This could cause a failure cascade, resulting in containment failure.
  
• Fuel rods break apart. Impaired cooling could result in partial melting of the core.

Perhaps Beijing  waking from their little nap is a realistic prerequisite for U.S. assistance.

 

 

Note: This post has been supplemented by Revised: US assessing reported leak at Chinese nuclear power facility.

(CNN) Exclusive: US assessing reported leak at Chinese nuclear power facility.

The Taishan reactors are a pressurized water design (PWR), with two water loops.

• At high temperature and pressure, the primary loop cools the reactor core.
• The primary loop transfers heat to  the secondary loop.
• The secondary loop generates steam which powers turbines.
• The turbines turn electric generators.

The primary loop is subject to the intense radiation of the reactor core. Under normal operation this causes radiolysis; a small quantity of water is broken down into free hydrogen and  oxygen. In a PWR design, this can be a stable arrangement; the dissolved hydrogen suppresses more radiolysis.

• Radiolysis is a normal source of gas.

If a bubble of free H and O forms somewhere in the piping, it could recombine explosively, so most designs bleed off the gas at the top of the loop. The expected rate of bleed-off is known to the designers.  The Framatome  report of excessive, progressively increasing gas release indicates gas is being generated by other mechanism(s).

• Metal-water interaction. Many metals, and some semiconductors, are weakly catalytic, accelerating radiolysis. Fuel rods are clad with zirconium, which tends to make gas: Zr + 2 H₂O → ZrO₂ + 2 H₂ .  This becomes critical with a core melt-down.
• Dissolved impurities, such as chlorine,and corrosion products, including zirconium, and whatever leaches out of a bad weld.

Why has Framatome approached the U.S. ?   The U.S. is the heir to the Manhattan Project knowledge base. Contrary to popular impression, most of the project dollars were spent on chemistry and materials science, not design of the Bomb. Including post war,  307 research reactors were constructed. Since one cannot look easily inspect the inside a reactor core, methods of remote diagnosis were developed.

Samples of water from the high pressure loop have dissolved chemicals with radioactive signatures. Excess gas implies corrosion in the system, but from what? A radiation chemistry analysis of primary-loop water could narrow the scope to a bad weld, (not the worst) or a hot spot in the core (bad).

In the early phase of COVID-19, the Wuhan regional bureaucracy engaged in what could charitably be called self deception. When the Beijing government took charge, China’s response  ranked with the best in the world. COVID has left China without visible scars.

A Taishan  miscalculation could be much worse. If the containment vessels hold, a Three-Mile Island results, with almost no consequences. If containment fails, you have a Chernobyl or Fukushima.

Are you listening, China?

 

 

 

 

 

 

This summit is likely to be without precedent. Concessions, agreement, national expressions of  friendship, or personal bonding, are unlikely.  Neither personality lends to the media circus in the manner of the Trump-Kim summit.  We won’t be bored by the freebee hand-shake shots that dripped heedlessly from the Reuters front page. In anticipation, Getty has sourced Russian dancing bears snacking on Delaware blue crab.

If the summit pays dividends,  the distributions will come in the future, beyond the standard diplomatic horizon, where six months are equivalent to five minutes of anything else. You are entitled to  speculate on the nature of these dividends.

Clue. Of all the issues of the U.S. – Russia relationship, virtually all are unmovable, not in play. A minority become negotiable with passage of time. What is impossible now may become slightly possible in 2, 4,…8 years.

To avoid interfering with Biden’s message, this discussion will resume after the summit.

 

 

 

(CNN)France and Germany ‘seeking full clarity’ from US and Denmark on spying report.

What follows is speculation. I don’t think I’m spilling any secret beans.

(CNN)France and Germany ‘seeking full clarity’ from US and Denmark on spying report.

The U.S. wanted to stop Nordstream  gas pipelines 1 and 2, which run through the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. Construction of Nordstream 1  began in May 2011. The alleged wiretapping was in the time frame 2011-2013. Understanding Merkel’s commitment to the projects was crucial to crafting sanctions to stop Nordstream 2. Sanctions have failed: (DW) Nord Stream 2: Construction resumes in Danish waters.

The route of Nordstream 2,  identical to already-operating Nordstream 1, passes through Denmark’s territorial waters for roughly 120 km as it skirts the Danish island of Bornholm. Denmark could have stopped Nordstream 2 by prohibition of the route.

Caught between the U.S. and Germany, Denmark ultimately caved to Germany. Facilitation of wiretapping would be a private expression of  sympathy.

Our concerns are real. Nordstream 2 completes the replacement of Ukraine’s pipeline infrastructure for consumers in northern Europe.  Loss by Ukraine of transit fees for existing pipelines risks  current Western alignment.

Over the past decade, Russia has supplied upwards of 30% of Europe’s gas.  (Stastista) Share of extra-EU natural gas imports from Russia from 2010 to 1st half 2020. So besides destabilizing Ukraine, how does Nordstream 2 enhance Russia’s power over Europe?

• It cements Russia’s competitive advantage.
• Focusing on Germany, an historical enemy/ally, it increases the strike precision of the Russian gas weapon.
• Is NATO Brain Dead? Negotiating with the Russians; Mike Pompeo in the Fulda Gap gains reality with yet another German tie to Russia.

The Cold  War Fulda Gap is replaced by the Suwalki Corridor, a choke point created by gifting Stalin the Kalingrad exclave after World War 2. Since Blue has lost to Red in every simulation, U.S. wargamers anticipate the  loss of the corridor early in a conflict, cutting off the Baltic States. NATO forces are insufficient to deal with unfavorable geography,  which is why the last administration pressed Merkel so hard on Germany’s poor state of readiness.

Massive German support would be required to regain the Suwalki Corridor. It is natural to wonder if a gas cutoff would motivate tomorrow’s Germany to temporize.

The founding of NATO in 1949 brought Western Europe under the U.S. nuclear umbrella. Though the-no-first-use nuclear doctrine governs, the certainty of Russian nuclear retaliation against the U.S. demands an answer to this question:  What is it about Europe that requires the promise we commit to the flames of nuclear devastation?

in 1949, the commitment came from the conviction that the reborn heart of Europe was so pure in spirit, it was worth dying for on the other side of the Atlantic. We have deep suspicion of claims that business is  exempt from this standard, yet this is a vital point to Germany.

Until surpassed by China, Germany was the largest exporter of manufactured goods. The German economy crucially relies on exports. Germans worry that while the U.S. economy could restart from a catastrophe, their economy, so interdependent on international relations, might fail to rekindle. In the U.S., globalism is debatable. In Germany, it is factual.

Henry Kissinger offers the history Germans are conscious of:

• Good  relations with Russia and economic prosperity go together.
• Bad relations  coincide with bad economic times.
• Since Russia survives mostly as a natural resources state, while Germany is entirely a manufacturing state, there is natural complement.

The U.S. attitude towards Germany is divided between committed globalists, conditional globalists, and isolationists. None are above  criticism; none reference these perspectives. The nut of it is:

• Russia is feared less than the Soviet Union. Economic conflict and internal stress are real. Military conflict is imaginary, except to Poland and the Baltic states. Ukraine is not a member of NATO.
• Russia’s use of the gas weapon remains imaginary.
• NATO is now divided into regions disconnected by conflicts between member states that span economic, political, territorial, and religious. Germany’s contribution is insufficient defense of the Suwalki Corridor,

If any productive approach is to be found, the custodians of U.S. foreign policy, globalists, conditional globalists, and isolationists, must examine the German perspective. With understanding may come a remedy for the illness at the heart of NATO.

Or maybe not. We don’t write history; we live it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edit 5/27/2021. The Wuhan Institute was incorrectly stated as Biosafety Level 3, BSL-3.  It is BSL-4, certified by China’s domestic authority.

Two  questions: Did COVID Come From a Lab, followed by Did China willfully conceal the initial spread from the international community?

(CNN) Why scientists are suddenly more interested in the lab-leak theory of Covid’s origin. Because, quoting   (original is WSJ exclusive),

A US intelligence report found that several researchers at China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology fell ill in November 2019 and had to be hospitalized, a new detail about the severity of their symptoms…

and (CNN) Chinese state media is turning on Fauci amid Wuhan lab controversy. because Fauci took note of it.

In April 2020, I wrote Did COVID-19 Come from a Lab? Nothing changed the undecidable nature of the question, until the WSJ report.  If it was COVID-19, a lab leak would be plausible.

Quoting (CNN) Chinese state media…,

An adviser for the World Health Organization, Jamie Metzl, said the lab-leak theory is possible while scientists were “poking and prodding and studying” viruses with the good intention of developing vaccines.

This is the closest the news has come to the nut of what matters: intent. If the intent had been to weaponize COVID, it would be as  wicked as anything the Russian GRU could dream up. But what if the intent had been academic or preventative?

• Have 3.49 million died because some ignorant farmer inoculated himself handling live produce for a wet market?
• Or because some careless academic opened an unsterilized glove box?
• Or did a researcher from the Wuhan Institute visit the wet market to obtain live produce samples, become infected at the market, infecting other workers by personal contact?
• For every zoonosis that jumps to humans, there is an index case.  Should the index case be held legally liable, like Typhoid Mary?
• Is it force majeure? Is it negligence, or criminal negligence? By who, farmer,  careless technician, local government, or national?

This is straight-up religion, Good versus Evil,  bastardized for political capital, the search for the guilty, an urge to distinguish between force majeure, and negligence-by-people-who-should-know-better. There is no sharp distinction. Since punishment is out of the question, what would a guilty verdict mean?

Nothing, unless weaponization was intended. Circumstances do not support this:

• The original Wuhan strain is a wild, unmodified virus, not optimal for weaponization. Since then, random mutations have increased value as a bio-weapon. This happened mostly in the U.K. South Africa, and Brazil.
• The Wuhan Institute is a BSL-3 facility. To handle bio-weapons with reasonable safety, BSL-4 is required.  China knows this. (Edit 5/27/2021. The Wuhan Institute was incorrectly stated as Biosafety Level 3, BSL-3.  It is BSL-4, certified by China’s domestic authority.)
  

So the lab question is a quest for moral capital, which has doubtful utilities:

• Conversion  to an asset of diplomacy.
• An unenforceable judgment, as in, “pay up.”
• A feel good moment for declining nations.

China is a profound challenge to the Westphalian system of  Henry Kissinger’s World Order. Let’s not trivialize with valueless feel-good arguments. Quoting from Did COVID-19 Come from a Lab?,

The politicization of a question that cannot have a definite answer is the use of animus to influence trade policy. Bad vibes can be reciprocated. Trade, human rights, and geopolitics have their own legitimacies. They don’t need help from plague-inspired hate.

Second Question. Did China willfully conceal the initial spread from the international community? The 2011 (Wikipedia) Wenzhou train collision is instructive. Quoting,

Officials responded to the accident by hastily concluding rescue operations and ordering the burial of the derailed cars. These actions elicited strong criticism from Chinese media and online communities. In response, the government issued directives to restrict media coverage, which was met with limited compliance, even on state-owned networks.

They buried the evidence. Here, we bury bodies. In China, they bury whole rail cars. Substitute “COVID-19” for “derailed cars” and the meaning becomes clear. Politicians everywhere try to bury problems. Contemporary open source coverage indicated that when the epidemic was accurately reported to the national government, transparency (mostly) replaced concealment. (This may, of course, be contradicted by clandestine intelligence. I am unaware of any leakage to the degree of the WSJ report.)

The response of the Wenzhou incident implies an ingrained pattern of domestic China civil service that carried over to the COVID concealment, an artifact of their local domestic politics, with international concealment as a side effect. Much later, dating to the first “from a lab” accusations, it became a diplomatic football.

Readers in the U.S. have had a close-up  COVID view of domestic concealment, incompetence, politicization, and delusional thinking. Isn’t it a little hard to criticize China’s civil service for the same?  We’ve buried our share of truth.

From Did COVID-19 Come from a Lab? ,

We got caught with our pants down. The blame should start here, and it should stop here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A riveting feature story: (GQ) The Mystery of the Immaculate Concussion.

Mainstream journalism: (CNN) US investigates second suspected case of mystery ‘syndrome’ near White House. Quoting,

The twin incidents in downtown Washington, along with a previous suspected case in northern Virginia in 2019, have raised concerns that the wave of episodes first seen only among Americans overseas is now occurring in rising numbers on US soil — and maybe even at the President’s front door.

If this is as real in every instance as  may be, policy revisions are mandated.

Soviet Operation RYAN, initiated by  then KGB chairman Yuri Andropov in 1981, was a search for proof and timing of a surprise nuclear attack by the U.S. The extreme paranoia, which could have lead to an actual nuclear exchange, was thought to be due to the isolation of the two societies.

It was thought that if we facilitated Soviet observation  in the U.S. of unclassified activities, even with the inevitable cost of espionage, the Soviet bias towards paranoia  would be reduced. Up until about 2008, this manifested in a degree of  mutual tolerance of foreign intelligence presences.

Multiple factors involve the transition of Russian attitudes towards intolerance of U.S. activities, and disinhibition  of active measures in the West, such as assassination:

• Enlargement of NATO, 2002-2020.
• Financial crisis of 2007–2008 , when Putin turned philosophically away from the West as a model.
• 2014, Russo-Ukrainian War, which drove a wedge between Russia and the West of indefinite duration.
• With the dissolution of the Politburo in 1991, a loss of political inhibition of violence in the clandestine/covert apparatus.

In 2018,  following the spate of high profile Russian assassinations in Europe, I began to contemplate the unthinkable. Individuals targeted for assassination were traditionally selected by these criteria:

• Defection.
• Extrajudicial punishment, with similar activity by the West towards terror targets.
• Grudge, as per Skripal, who was received by the UK as part of a spy swap.

The attempt on the Skripals had new elements. Obtained by swap, we understood Skripal to be “ours” free and clear. Yet he was selected for assassination in an operation that incurred massive collateral damage. Prior, the use of a WMD, Novichok, in the West, would have been imagined only as an act of war.

So I began to contemplate the unthinkable: Maybe the Russians have gone experimental with murder. I then began a mental exploration of how an experiment might develop. The first goal would be to determine the sensitivity and perceptive acuity of the adversary power structure. It would begin with actions against the periphery, gradually escalating towards the center.

• The first targets would be on foreign soil, as has already occurred.
• The second targets would be members of the party out-of-power, or shortly to be so.  The attacks on NSC personnel occurred after the presidential election. Would the adversary’s power structure react to a minor provocation?
• If these actions do not register with the adversary, targeting of Congressional staffers  deemed hostile to Russia.
• The fourth target, elected members of Congress known as hawks.
• Fifth, Executive Branch staff of the party-in-power.
• Ultimate, Executive Branch officials.

The  outlines of an experiment with nonlethal disablement may be apparent. It must not be allowed to continue. Stopping this activity  is not simply a matter of technology.  It involves manpower. Between 2014 and 2018, the Russian presence in NYC was so extensive, it rivaled the CIA’s “City Eye” of Cairo in the 50’s. The 2018 expulsions dented Russian capabilities.

Yet the mystery attacks have moved closer to the center; the experiment progresses. This suggests the presence of undiscovered illegals. Such networks can function without any contact with operatives who have official cover, such as those expelled in 2018.

Networks of illegals are notoriously hard to detect. Post WWII, these were composed of two classes of individuals:

• The controller (rezident) was a KGB officer, with a fictitious identity laboriously constructed over multiple years in multiple countries.
• Agents were typically European immigrants with leftist leanings.

This picture is obsolete. The covers of illegals detected in recent years were of quite different, casual construction. The traditional methods used to create them are so onerous, modern Russia may not possess willing candidates. It is crucial to identify groups from which new illegal networks can be constructed.

In the current political and cultural climate of the U.S. the legitimacy of our system is questioned by a significant minority. This facilitates illegals construction from disaffected groups, without excluding concealment of rezidents as Russian immigrants. Steps to consider:

• Restriction of travel to and in the U.S. by Russian nationals.
• Reexamination of green card holders.
• Increased surveillance.
• Search for connections with groups of seditious sentiment.
• Businesses operated by rezidents are traditional covers. Commercial  Russian enterprises, such as the retail arm of Lukoil, should be divested.

At the Harriman Institute in 2018, the sentiment was expressed for less contact with Russia, rather than more. This is the one regrettable result of the demise of the Politburo. I never thought I would credit them with anything positive. Do I  blame Putin for this? He is the architect of a system that lacks inhibitory controls. This does not imply that he controls every twitch of its muscle.

We are not blameless. For our system to remain intact, politicians of both parties must turn down gifts of dirty tricks, and resist the temptation to liaise with Russians who may present in a variety of complex aliases. If you sell your soul, it may come due sooner than you think.

The threat may recede if more Americans come to value what they have as worth preserving. This includes the gift of the tradition of compromise.