This bomb discussion will end with an interesting insight into the politics of Afghanistan. In between, there will be blast tables provided by the BATF. Foreign policy lives at the intersection of national interests, personalities, and the physical world. In the past few days, there has been a tremendous amount written about the MOAB, making … Continue reading Understanding the Mother of All Bombs
We continue with Putin’s Apology. As a reminder, an apology is a defense, such as a good trial lawyer might offer. In comparison with the unknowable facts, it could be true, false, or a mix. The only requirement of this apology is that it be favorable to Putin, and not definitively refutable. (Reuters) Opposition politician … Continue reading Putin’s Job Works on Him; His Apology; Navalny Detained
CNN: Did ISIS attack Russian military equipment at key Syrian base? This is asserted by STRATFOR, a reliable organization. The analysis is good. The open-source conclusion is that, Russian assertions to the contrary, the strike occurred. The success of ISIS in damaging Base T4, at which advanced weapons were stationed, doubtless evokes the shudders of … Continue reading ISIS Attacks Russian Base T4; the Kremlin’s Missing Musical Notes
Portrait of a Spaceman. (Click for a larger view. 24×36, oil on canvas.) The past month, there have been few easily picked cherries for open source analysis. If you must read down, I have a short list of succinct predictions. Much of the geopolitical commentary of the open media is at odds with my analysis, … Continue reading Portrait of a Spaceman; Predictions for 2016
The foreign policy of Russia is raison d’état , with a complication. Since the internal power structure of Russia is necessarily based on “friends”, as opposed to institutional altruism, it is natural to extend this habit of thought, as the primary way to relate to other givers and receivers of power, to the international sphere. … Continue reading Russia in Syria, Part IV
CNN. Carter’s statement of the situation is doubtless accurate. He has reliable observers, and no inclination to bias. But “will to fight” sounds like description of a virtue. In places and times, it is. The phrase risks mislabeling Iraqi soldiering as a moral issue. It distracts from our issues, which are U.S. interests. If one … Continue reading Ash Carter says the Iraqis Have “…’no will to fight’ in Ramadi”…Patton’s Response
A while back, I met one of my “assets” in a dimly lit Indian restaurant. By this, I mean someone whose conversation I overheard, and who I was brazen enough to engage in unsolicited dialog before the suggestion was made that we continue on another occasion. In our brief discussion, which was encouragingly empty of … Continue reading Pakistan refuses Saudi Request for Yemen Alliance
In the CNN article, “U.S. readying plan to send advisers to Iraqis fighting ISIS in Anbar“, a rather sterile description of the role of an advisor is provided by Col. Edward Thomas, spokesman for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: “To be clear, this is not a change in mission nor is it a … Continue reading Advisers in Iraq: What They Do, What They Can Do
Using the list of 17 labels/categories described in Obama Admin Decision Making; Iran/Syria Policy Paralysis Part 2, characterize how some contemporary and historical world leaders think. By considering historical figures, you get to check if your analysis makes any sense. Contemporary figures are useful for actual predictive juice. Depending upon where you live, you may … Continue reading Homework for Aspiring Predictors re 17 Ways of “Knowing”
The comments by Senator Linday Graham on CNN video, to the effect that air power without U.S. ground troops cannot defeat ISIS, may be true. But since the media, in their typical muddled fashion, have provided little useful info on how modern air power works, this is just to get you started. The terms “strategic … Continue reading Air Power in Iraq and Syria; Divining the Political Map