In Part 5, Advice For…, we have an abstract argument that operant conditioning could be an effective tool to curb some of the activities of a nation-state. We want the Russians to cease subversion of our political process via social media and fake news. B.F. Skinner’s numerous publications explain in general terms how this should … Continue reading Advice for a New Secretary of State, Part 6; How to Use a Skinner Box
The sanctions against Russia’s central bank and sovereign wealth fund, and disconnection of major banks from SWIFT, make long term economic pressure feasible. If Russia cuts off gas and oil deliveries, Russia’s internal politics become unsustainable. A more complex scenario arises if Russia chooses to accelerate oil/gas deliveries. Specialists hold that Russia’s economy will eventually … Continue reading Exploiting Cracks in the Kremlin; Putin, the New Stalin?
In September ’17, I wrote a series for Rex Tillerson: Advice for a New Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, Part 1 Advice for a New Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, Part 2 Advice for a New Secretary of State, Part 3 Advice for a New Secretary of State, Part 4; Nikki Haley, Russia Advice for … Continue reading Advice for a New Secretary of State, Part 7
We continue from Russian Bounty on U.S. Soldiers in Afghanistan; Unit 29155, Part 2. In deference to readers in the Russian government, this is not a judgment of their domestic policies. But Russian foreign policies are malign to the West, with no better justification than Richelieu. In the West there seems to be increasing understanding … Continue reading Russian Bounty on U.S. Soldiers in Afghanistan; Unit 29155, Part 3
In Iran Sanctions; Bolton on Regime Change, I wrote This gives the a priori probabilities: chance of negotiations = 28% chance of positive outcome to sanctions = 14% From Iran warns U.S., Israel of revenge after parade attack; Missile Attack on U.S. Forces?, This is really just a recapitulation of Carl von Clausewitz. The enemy … Continue reading Coalition Against Iran; Logical Positivism and Self Interest
(Politico) Bolton says US not seeking Iranian regime change. Quoting, “Our policy is not regime change,” he said during an interview on Fox News. “We want to put unprecedented pressure on the government of Iran to change its behavior. And so far they’ve shown no indication they’re prepared to do that.” A reasonable goal is always … Continue reading Iran Sanctions; Bolton on Regime Change
Imagine for a moment that I am tasked with authoring an executive summary for the upcoming Trump-Putin summit. There isn’t room for historical justification or the semi-literary style so popular with foreign policy journalism. And it has to be self contained, so I can’t tell POTUS to go read Kennan’s Long Telegram. Instead, here’s a … Continue reading Trump-Putin Summit; An Executive Summary; The Oldest Russia Analyst
We continue from Putin Wins; Russian Politics & Novichok Part 1. Much of what follows was originally written as the unpublished part 7 of Advice to a New Secretary of State. It is re-purposed here as continuation of Putin Wins; Russian Politics & Novichok Part 1, on the road to developing a comparison of Russia … Continue reading Putin Wins; Russian Politics; Trace Elements of a Society; Novichok Part 2
In September of 2017, I wrote a six-part series: Advice for a New Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson Part 1 – Kissinger as an exemplar. Part 2 – Linkage as a tool. Part 3 – Handling Russian subversion. Part 4 – The Russia we are dealing with is not an individual. Advice for a New … Continue reading U.S. Foreign Policy Challenges; the Games of John Bolton, Part 1
We continue from Politics Part 4; House Select January 6 Committee. The period beginning in the middle of the 19th century, till perhaps 1970, was marked by the development of the social sciences, and of psychology, the science of the mind. Replacing the mere assertions of philosophy, Marx, Pareto, William James, Freud, B.F. Skinner, … Continue reading Politics Part 5; House Select January 6 Committee