The  Reuters headline, “Turkish army thrusts deeper into Syria, monitor says 35 villagers killed”, makes it possibly interesting to review a post from October 2014, Turkey & the New Ottoman Empire. It hypothesizes a future that, at this moment,  does not exist. Yet such is the fluidity of the situation that territorial expansion of Turkey,  … Continue reading Turkey in Syria; The New Ottoman Empire; a Brief Note about Cultural Affinity →

The tomb of Suleiman Shah, located on a dog-leg of the Euphraste River about 30 miles inside Syria, is designated by a 1921 treaty as an extraterritorial  sovereign enclave of Turkey. As the existence, or even reverence of the burial site, expressed in architecture, is contrary to the tenets of Sunni Islam, the “theology” of … Continue reading Turkey & the New Ottoman Empire →

(Reuters) Turkey’s Erdogan asks Russia to step aside in Syria. They will largely do this. The Russians may draw a line on the map, and they may take local action against Turkish deployment beyond that line. If that occurs, it will be the high point of tension, followed by a little freeze, followed by deescalation. … Continue reading Turkey’s Erdogan asks Russia to step aside in Syria →

It is impossible to begin without mention of the U.S./Russia cooperation agreement.  Anything that ameliorates the suffering deserves kudos. The agreement has two inherent propositions: Address the horrors of war by tactical measures. Serve as a basic, incremental step away from conflict and towards political process. So it might enable some good, akin to the … Continue reading Syria Policy Review Part 1 →

By the 1813 Treaty of Gulistan the 1828 Treaty of Turkmenchay, Iran ceded all Caucasian territories to Russia. The land was lost in the worst possible way, by military defeat. Historically, this  gives rise to revanchism, the political and popular will to regain lost territory. The revanchist impulse is not presently active in Iranian politics. … Continue reading Russia in Syria Part V →

They talked by phone. Quoting, “…the main motive of the phone call was extending condolences to the Russian head of state for the recent suicide bombing in Grozny.” I don’t think so. If, in your liberal arts education, you have been taught the use of Occam’s Razor, and the pitfall of conspiracy-theory psychosis, you may … Continue reading Putin & Erdoğan have a chat…about what? →

A basic rule of propaganda: When the propagandist has monopoly of the media, when there is only one message, people will tend to believe that message. This is because critical thinking takes mental energy,  requiring mental rebellion against the imposed order. It takes less energy to go with the flow. But even when monopoly control of … Continue reading Moqtada al-Sadr wins Iraq Elections →

We discussed SALT I as an example. What are the  current elements of Identity of interest, linkage, and trust? We have to do some creative thinking to find these elements. Recently, with large troop concentrations around Moscow, there has been some speculation that the Russians are more fearful of the threat environment than revealed by … Continue reading Trump Putin Meeting; Finding the Great Trade; Conclusion →

In the  open-source struggle for reliable information, Chatham House is  a high-quality source on the process of developing a new constitution for Syria. The dateline, 17 May 2016, offers a perspective more useful than immediacy. Since then, there has been absolutely no political evolution. Carrion eaters cluster around Syria as with the corpse of megafauna … Continue reading Syria Policy Review Part 2 →

In White House Years, Henry Kissinger writes, “If history teaches us anything, it is that there can be no peace without equilibrium and no justice without restraint.” The second clause was abided by the surrender terms offered by Ulyesses S. Grant to Robert E. Lee at Appomatox, when the surrendered were permitted to keep their … Continue reading Replacing Assad, Part 3 →