You may wish to look at Crime Deterrence; Our Groundhog Day of Slaughter, Part 1.
(CNN) Trump holds news conference and announces mobilization of National Guard troops in DC. Quoting,
Despite Trump’s claims Monday that crime is “out of control,” data shows violent crime in Washington, DC, has been declining since its 2023 spike, with two years of sustained improvement.
The math is bolstered on the CNN mobile site by a short form video with unlabeled axes and pleasant music that does not allow the viewer to index along the time axis. CNN does better with Fact check: Violent crime in DC has fallen in 2024 and 2025 after a 2023 spike. Quoting,
Of course, one homicide is too many, and it’s a matter of perspective whether one chooses to focus on the startling number of homicides or the decline in that number. But it’s just not true that the number is getting worse.
Unfortunately for our state of mind, humans do not measure hazard on a linear scale. It is more likely logarithmic, requiring a change of X10, or 1/10 to register as twice as bad or twice as good. There might be eight perceptual categories of crime:
- Statistical; the victims are nameless.
- Victims are known through the media.
- Victims inhabit the same social structure. Ie., you’re a politician and the victim is a politician.
- The crime is notorious.
- You can identify in some way with the victim; “It could have happened to me.”
- The victim is someone you know.
- It happened to someone you love.
- It happened to you.
This is the truth of “One homicide is too many.” The political divide is largely along three issues:
- Trend of public perception. Democrats say things are getting better, while Republicans say things are intolerable. They are not talking the same language, because they are not feeling in the same way.
- Culture. Post World War II, the crime rate has fluctuated around a higher mean than prior, subject to random stresses in our society. Sadly, our culture breeds criminals.
- Remedy. Reform the criminal, or punish more harshly? The U.S. has the highest incarceration rate in the world, challenging the practicality of the traditional remedy for crime — punishment.
The two parties offer for our consideration approaches most in concert with their political philosophies. Republicans offer punishment. Democrats offer reform. Republicans are concerned with the victim; Democrats are concerned about the cycle of poverty that breeds crime. Neither approach has sustained long term political viability, which is limited by the tenure of party dominance. Neither approach has reduced violent crime to levels typical of other First World countries.
The absence of a viable strategy to make the U.S. a low crime country is an opportunity for both parties. The potential for Republicans is limited, due to their inflexible devotion to the tradition of crime and punishment. The possibilities for Democrats are wide open, though possibly in conflict with their tradition of concern for the dignity of man.
To both, which will it be? Punishment, compromise of dignity, or something new and novel? Both sides must embrace aspects of the other. There is no logic in automatic release of violent offenders, or incarceration without prompt justice.
While you debate, someone is bleeding out.