(CNN) Trump says US military struck ISIS terrorists in Nigeria. Quoting,
Nigerian Information Minister Mohammed Idris said Friday that the strikes were carried out in the Bauni forest of the Tangaza area against two major ISIS enclaves, which he said were being used as assembly and staging grounds to plan “large-scale terrorist attacks” in Nigeria.
Sixteen GPS-guided precision munitions were launched using Reaper drones, the information minister added, claiming the targets were “successfully” neutralized.
This is an appropriate, sustainable response. Lacking explanation is the article video, which shows the launch of a BGM-109C Tomahawk Land Attack Missile. This is an expensive weapon, capable of some structural penetration, which suggests there was a bunker complex.
See U.S. Troops to Nigeria? Quoting,
A geographically adjacent threat, al-Shabaab, has the potential for linkage through a desire to establish jihadist belts in territories that adjoin Nigeria at the savanna Sahel, the semi-arid belt that girds Africa just south of the Sahara. This is already in play from Somalia in the east, through Mali and the other the Francophone states that recently expelled French influence.
The limited reach implied by the indigenous Somali roots of al-Shabaab gave ISIS a fluid opening in territory on the Niger border, without competition from a group of comparable reach. This suggests a dictum: The spread of terror is more opportunistic than ideological. When the tip of the ISIS spear reached Nigeria, action became imperative. Yet action goes against the MAGA grain of isolationism. It is likely that Trump plays the Christian angle to rally his base for an exception. Requirements for exceptions will continue, as the world becomes more interdependent for minerals.
The last cycle of European colonialism, the Scramble for Africa, began in the late 19th century, lasting until WWI. At peak, 90% of Africa was under the rule of European powers. In that day, the ultimate potential of a nation was thought to be land area; the remedy for the constricted European powers was African land, labor, and biosphere.
For most of history, strategic minerals were so few, they have been used as markers of human development. While the advent of iron and steel was marked by numerous additions to the original copper, tin, and zinc, the year 1882 marks the the dawn of modern materials science with the discovery of manganese steel. 80% of world reserves of manganese are in South Africa. But the first strategic mineral with remarkable concentration was diamond. Tools impregnated with industrial diamond, sourced from Kimberly, South Africa beginning 1872, were the only practical way of machining manganese steel. Today, the development of synthetic diamonds has rendered industrial dependence on natural diamonds minimal.
The early 20th century saw the addition of nickel, chromium, vanadium, tungsten, and, for the finest tool steels, cobalt. The major supplier of cobalt is Congo. The dominant supplier of chromium is South Africa.
The development of microelectronics made tantalum strategic. Any circuit board containing VLSI chips has components known as tantalum capacitors in close proximity to those chips. Alternatives are possible, but your cellphone might lock up more frequently. Tantalum is a conflict mineral, sourced from Congo.
A large part of the minerals problem involves a new Scramble for Africa, one of alliances, not domination, in which Russia and China have a head start. Russia exports tactical hard power with mercenaries; China favors soft. Success will require more adroitness than typical of U.S. foreign policy. We should take a good look at why France was thrown out of Francophone Africa. An alternative to the “Christian persecution” label, so necessary in domestic engagement with MAGA, is vital.
The necessity of a new Scramble is amplified by an inconvenient fact. Apart from Africa, China possesses strategic near-monopolies of most strategic minerals connected with semiconductors and renewable energy. This is not the time to eliminate DoD Africa Command; it must be reinforced.
The 60’s resulted in many more strategic minerals, primarily rare earths, used as semiconductor dopants and in magnets. China has a near-monopoly of these, and lithium. It appears that China has a virtual lock on all the components of renewable energy. But in this case, there is a less efficient, but sustainable alternative to aggressive foreign policy. Efficient electric motors, competitive with those using rare earths, have been designed. Alternative battery chemistries are under intensive development.
Credit is due the Trump and Biden administrations for recognition that, in a multi polar world, the assumption of a stable international system, with market-based access to raw materials, cannot be relied upon. There does seem to have been some OJT (on-the-job-training) on the limits of U.S. power. It has been frequently said that the U.S. has the unique ability to wage economic warfare. This tactic suffered its first defeat with China. A few years ago, the conventional wisdom was that China would not play the rare-earth card against U.S. tariffs. That assumption was wrong.
The consequences are immediate and severe. Without stable supplies of strategic minerals, the current policy of military overmatch is not viable. Without, our accustomed standard of living is not possible. This dilemma has not yet entered the political discourse of either party. Even with a president who understands this, his MAGA base is far from comprehension. How do you sell an active foreign policy when you ran as an isolationist?
The rarest mineral right now is spadeium. Let’s call a spade a spade.