(Aljazeera) Russia again accuses Ukraine of planning ‘false flag’ attack. Quoting,
Ukraine and its allies have dismissed such accusations as cynical attempts to spread disinformation, and have accused Moscow of planning incidents itself in a bid to blame Ukraine.
Ukraine is planning to stage a nuclear incident on its territory to pin the blame on Moscow ahead of a key United Nations meeting, Russia has alleged without providing evidence.
Prior Russian assertions have not been followed by Russian use of radiological weapons. This results in opinion of the current assertion as propaganda without material consequence. This may be a grave error. We watched with concern when Russians occupied the Zaporizhzhia reactor hall, anticipating they might stage a containment breach. They did not do so, or deploy dirty bombs, for these possible reasons:
- The prevailing winds blow towards Russia.
- Prior failure of mobilization, they were not desperate.
- Easily manufactured, dirty bombs were not present in the Russian arsenal with appropriate specification.
Now they are desperate. There has been ample time to salt aerial bombs with radioactive isotopes. In a tip of the hand, Belorussian pilots have been trained to drop “special weapons.” Belarus, a quasi nonbelligerent, may be a staging area, resulting from a Russian guess that a preemptive strike is less likely.
Effective against civilian populations, dirty bombs have been disparaged as military weapons. We have watched this war for a year, as it has evolved in ways unexpected by the military profession. It has forced a look at geography with heightened perception. The Dnipro river crossings are our focus. There are not many.
- If a bridge is hit with a 500 lb bomb, it can be repaired.
- If a bridge is contaminated by radioactive substance, without other damage, it can be washed down.
- If a bridge is hit by a 500 lb dirty bomb, it cannot be repaired. Repair activity entails too much exposure.
In countering this threat, nothing, including preemption, or provision of long range weaponry, can be excluded from consideration. Russia’s looming “air war” makes this time urgent.