(CNN) A stunning moment in American history decades in the making will reshape politics asserts that restoration of abortion rights will take a long time, citing the 50 years it took to reverse. (CNN) End of Roe v. Wade may not hurt Republicans in Congress, but it could sting them in the states, suggests the Roe vs. Wade reversal will have minimal near term impact.
These predictions have elements of conventional wisdom. A different view:
- It took 50 years of turnover of justices to assemble the conservative majority that would commit to void precedent. This implies nothing about the time frame for legislative relief.
- The statistics of the second article cite only before-the-reversal and immediately after.
- There is a grass fire in the grass-roots. The weather is hot, dry, and windy. Punditry cannot predict how fast it will spread or how big it will get.
Repeal of Roe Versus Wade; the Beginning of a Republican Decline asserts that no effective political counterstrategy is available to the Republicans. Their alternative is nonpolitical, to violate or abrogate our democracy. In Politics Part 5; House Select January 6 Committee, I wrote,
Political science draws broadly from the social sciences. In Western democracies, the assumption that the system will endure results in a media tactical focus. Statistical models and sophisticated punditry dominate. Complacency avoids recognition that our system is a consensual box, with consent in danger.
Back in the 70’s and 80’s, we decried political apathy, and the convergence of both parties to cultural norms that were almost indistinguishable. In retrospect, this provided security for the consensual box. The current challenge has these roots:
- Liberalism, to which I adhere, has, in the red states, outgrown the box.
- With the decline of Big Labor, the Democratic party lacks the cohesion of a large center bloc.
- The advent of Falwell’s Moral Majority, and successor evangelical movements, marked the emergence of a large bloc of voters whose religious concerns are superior to continuation of consensual democracy. To many, it is expendable in pursuit of their goals.
So how long will it take to restore abortion rights? It may be quick — or never.