Mr. Guaido, watch your back. The new Russian presence in Venezuela is a personal hazard to your life. We can trace the roots of the hazard all the way back to Sergey Kirov, a prominent early Bolshevik. Joseph Stalin said, “Death solves all problems. No man, no problem.” The killing of Sergey Kirov has not … Continue reading Juan Guaido Watch Your Back; Trump says ‘Russia has to get out’ of Venezuela Part 2
(CNN) Trump says ‘Russia has to get out’ of Venezuela. and (CNBC) What next for Venezuela? Guaido calls for final push to oust Maduro after Trump reaffirms support. I’ve written extensively about revolution in Venezuela; see Venezuela articles. Now the natural course of events has been interrupted by the nascent military intervention of Russia, which … Continue reading Trump says ‘Russia has to get out’ of Venezuela
With background of abortive attempts at change of government by quasi-legal means, criteria for a successful revolution are discussed in (1/23/2019) Revolution in Venezuela, Redux, and (8/7/2017) Revolution in Venezuela. The missing element has been the lack of sanctuary in which to organize. Sanctuary can be geographic; urban as with the French and Russian revolutions, … Continue reading Venezuela on the Brink; the Aid Factor
I wouldn’t rule it out.
I wrote about this in August 2017, in Revolution in Venezuela. There have been previous signals, but none strong enough to counter the structural defect that has impeded revolution in Venezuela. The Caracas drone attack on Maduro was heralded as a serious challenge, yet no challenge to his power emerged. Between 1932 and 1944, there … Continue reading Revolution in Venezuela, Redux
On April 22, I wrote Two Candidates for Revolution: Venezuela and North Korea, in which I wrote, Venezuela is a good fit for existing theories of revolution. North Korea requires a novel approach. I will develop this in articles to be posted in a few days. With the recent events in Venezuela, it’s time to … Continue reading Revolution in Venezuela
Venezuela is a good fit for existing theories of revolution. North Korea requires a novel approach. I will develop this in articles to be posted in a few days.
(Reuters) Exclusive: Dispute flares among U.S. officials over Trump administration Iran arms control report. Quoting The report’s publication follows the administration’s formal designation on Monday of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Iran’s elite paramilitary and foreign espionage unit, as a foreign terrorist organization. The case that Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism has the … Continue reading Dispute among U.S. officials; IRG Terror Designate? Trump administration Iran arms control report
When the quality of information is poor, try to shrink the space in which you have to search for the estimate. It’s like knowing you lost your keys somewhere in your house. This technique, “fencing the problem”, was introduced in Russian Casualties estimate; a technique note. It receives further application in these articles. The fence … Continue reading Kim Fires 3 Top Military Officers, Part2
This is an index to the 28 articles about the North Korea conflict, most-recent first. Coverage began on 2/25/2017, with the assassination of Kim Jong-un’s half brother. Predictions are highlighted in red: North Korea; U.S. “Declares War”; Prediction Update North Korea; EMP Attack Rehearsal; Nuclear Weapons as a Political Tool North Korea Test H-Bomb – … Continue reading North Korea Articles Index