Mr. Guaido, watch your back. The new Russian presence in Venezuela is a personal hazard to your life. We can trace the roots of the hazard all the way back to Sergey Kirov, a prominent early Bolshevik. Edit 5/26/2019: See also Pussy Riot Member Verzilov, Poisoned? Botulin Toxin; A Gareth Williams Clue. Joseph Stalin said, … Continue reading Juan Guaido Watch Your Back; Trump says ‘Russia has to get out’ of Venezuela Part 2 →

(CNN) Trump says ‘Russia has to get out’ of Venezuela. and (CNBC) What next for Venezuela? Guaido calls for final push to oust Maduro after Trump reaffirms support. I’ve written extensively about revolution in Venezuela; see Venezuela articles. Now the natural course of events has been interrupted by the nascent military intervention of Russia, which … Continue reading Trump says ‘Russia has to get out’ of Venezuela →

With  background of abortive attempts at change of government by quasi-legal means, criteria for a successful revolution are discussed in (1/23/2019) Revolution in Venezuela, Redux, and (8/7/2017) Revolution in Venezuela. The  missing element has been the lack of sanctuary in which to organize. Sanctuary can be geographic;  urban as with the French and Russian revolutions, … Continue reading Venezuela on the Brink; the Aid Factor →

I wouldn’t rule it out.

I wrote about this in August 2017, in Revolution in Venezuela. There have been previous signals, but none strong enough to counter the structural defect that has impeded revolution in Venezuela. The Caracas drone attack on Maduro was heralded as a serious challenge, yet no challenge to his power emerged. Between 1932 and 1944,  there … Continue reading Revolution in Venezuela, Redux →

On April 22, I wrote Two Candidates for Revolution: Venezuela and North Korea, in which I wrote, Venezuela is a good fit for existing theories of revolution. North Korea requires a novel approach. I will develop this in articles to be posted in a few days. With the recent events in Venezuela, it’s time to … Continue reading Revolution in Venezuela →

Venezuela is a good fit for existing theories of revolution. North Korea requires a novel approach. I will develop this in articles to be posted in a few days.

Was this an act of domestic resistance, or Ukrainian?  Opinions vary. There isn’t enough evidence to distinguish, while Russian propagandists spin fictions to serve the state. One constant should be considered in every argument.  In 2015, several rebel commanders were  likely assassinated by the Kremlin. See Rebel Commander Aleksey Mozgovoy Killed in East Ukraine, Frozen … Continue reading Killing of Vladlen Tatarsky (Maxim Fomin) →

(Note to President Obama at the end.) In (CNN) A rare moment of public self-criticism by former president Obama on Iran, I asserted, with reference to Crane Brinton’s The Anatomy of Revolution, that Iran is not in a pre -revolutionary state. I’ve referred to Brinton a lot, yet he never claimed to predict revolution — … Continue reading Iran and The Anatomy of Revolution →

From (August 2017) Trump Wants to Fire U.S. Commander in Afghanistan, The bare-bones boiled-down essence of modern government is just a few things: Raise revenue by taxation. Use at least some of the taxes to provide services. Facilitate commerce. The services provided justify the taxes enough for popular acquiescence. You can add all the bells … Continue reading Afghanistan Collapse →