(Note to President Obama at the end.) In (CNN) A rare moment of public self-criticism by former president Obama on Iran, I asserted, with reference to Crane Brinton’s The Anatomy of Revolution, that Iran is not in a pre -revolutionary state. I’ve referred to Brinton a lot, yet he never claimed to predict revolution — … Continue reading Iran and The Anatomy of Revolution →

(CNN) A rare moment of public self-criticism by a former president. Quoting, “When I think back to 2009, 2010, you guys will recall there was a big debate inside the White House about whether I should publicly affirm what was going on with the Green Movement, because a lot of the activists were being accused … Continue reading (CNN) A rare moment of public self-criticism by former president Obama on Iran →

In the Soviet Union that preceded Russia,  power transitions styled after the palace coup. The current situation bears slight resemblance to the description of Crane Brinton’s classic text, The Anatomy of Revolution.  One element makes his list, another has partial resemblance, and one does not: A period of  increasing prosperity, followed by sudden reversal. See … Continue reading Power Transition in Russia? Revolution? Part 1 →

(NBC) U.S. officials: Iran official OK’d attacks on American military. Quoting, One U.S. official said Iran usually conceals the missiles and components when delivering them to the Houthis. These missiles are visible to overhead surveillance, leading to concerns Iran could attempt to launch missiles from the dhows. There are some indications they have mobile launchers … Continue reading Iranian Missile Movements; Open Source Versus Technical Intelligence →

This will not be an attempt to interpret Trump’s statement, except to note that “watch” is a passive activity.  Even presidents who have communicated in the most direct manner have seldom accurately predicted the implications of their own statements.  The influence of senior Republicans is growing. But whatever the intended future is, it is subject … Continue reading Trump wants U.S. military in Iraq to ‘watch Iran’: CBS interview →

I wrote about this in August 2017, in Revolution in Venezuela. There have been previous signals, but none strong enough to counter the structural defect that has impeded revolution in Venezuela. The Caracas drone attack on Maduro was heralded as a serious challenge, yet no challenge to his power emerged. Between 1932 and 1944,  there … Continue reading Revolution in Venezuela, Redux →

(Reuters) Iran warns U.S., Israel of revenge after parade attack. Quoting, The deputy head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned U.S. and Israeli leaders on Monday to expect a “devastating” response from Tehran, accusing them of involvement in an attack on a military parade in the city of Ahvaz. (CNN) Iran blames the US and Saudi … Continue reading Iran warns U.S., Israel of revenge after parade attack; Missile Attack on U.S. Forces? →

A basic rule of propaganda: When the propagandist has monopoly of the media, when there is only one message, people will tend to believe that message. This is because critical thinking takes mental energy,  requiring mental rebellion against the imposed order. It takes less energy to go with the flow. But even when monopoly control of … Continue reading Moqtada al-Sadr wins Iraq Elections →

What will become of Zimbabwe is a challenge to open source. We look for fault lines. One is obvious, the purge of military veterans in favor of Grace Mugabe and the ZANU-PF youth wing. If this is the only fault line, it is possible that even a military junta offshoot could run the country better … Continue reading Revolution in Zimbabwe; What Will Happen? →

Part 1 of Advice for a New Secretary of State is about the kind of job-skill knowledge that can be found in books, and the kind that cannot. Students of military tactics study the tactics of famous and successful generals, but nobody can lay a finger on exactly why Alexander Suvorov may have been the … Continue reading Advice for a New Secretary of State, Part 3 →